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Hot Topic Scrutiny Week
Hot Topic Scrutiny Week
1 mins to read

Latest Welly quake odds

Wed, 31 Jul 2013

I've just asked GNS seismologist John Ristau to give his latest odds for another major shake in Wellington (the first question in his recent Ask Me Anything session with NBR readers).

A week and a half on from the Magnitude 6.5 Sunday rumble, GNS is no longer calculating daily probabilities for the Cook Strait region.

Looking out further: 

"For a M 5.0 - 5.9, the probability for the next seven days is 47% and within one year 95%," Dr Ristau says.

"For a M > 6 the probability is 6% for the next seven days and 25% within one year.

"The 25% probability for  M > 6 within one year is approximately three times greater than what we would normally expect for this region."

Read GNS man's full Ask Me Anything session here

ckeall@nbr.co.nz

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Latest Welly quake odds
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