Malaysia's worrying national elections

COMMENT

Malaysia's ruling National Front coalition retained its 56-year hold on power by winning a simple majority of 112 seats in the 222-seat national parliament in polls May 5, the country's Election Commission said. Prime Minister Najib Razak will now return to power.

Financial markets were anticipating the National Front victory, Australia & Zealand Banking Group said in an April 30 report. The Malaysian ringgit bounced 1.7% after the election result.

Unfortunately, It seems to have solved none of the underlying issues and may only exacerbate Malaysia’s serious internal problems. 

As expected, opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has refused to concede defeat but the result is unlikely to be overturned. "It is an election that we consider fraudulent and the Election Commission has failed," he says.

Just 112 seats out of 222 were needed to take power and the National Front secured 133 seats, showing just how close the race actually was.

Surges of support from youth groups and from urban sectors convinced the opposition it could win. Polls had placed the opposition party in the lead right up until voting day. But it was not to be.

As this pivotal election shows, a split occurring in Malaysian society will create new obstacles for the ruling party.

Social divisions

A barely hidden secret of racial division bubbled away during the elections. Ethnic Chinese living in rural Malaysia voted heavily for the opposition party, citing discrimination.

They are the second largest social group in Malaysia at about 25% and feel disenchanted with political policies which generally favour Malays over other ethnic groups.

The idea that Malaysia is ruled by a healthy mix of ethnic groups has been essentially destroyed in the recent elections. Ethnic Malays now dominate the ruling party and minorities side almost entirely with the opposition.

There is also a growing cleft between the rural sectors who prefer the status quo and the urban middle class who want change. Malaysia is a complex country where poor, undeveloped rice paddies and rubber plantations are only a short drive from the very first-world capital of Kuala Lumpur.

Such diametric livelihoods are clashing ideologically and politically. Mr Najib touched on this fear: “This worries the government, because if it's not handled well it could spark tension.”

Much of the population now lives under a political regime they did not vote for, and discontent could be triggered as a result.

What kept Mr Najib in power for a further five-year term could be explained by a rise in economic optimism over past months.

Jobs are being found and inflation is easing. Foreign investment is now higher than either Thailand or Vietnam and wages are increasing. This, along with cash handouts to buy support for the ruling party, most likely cleared the way for the National Front’s success.

And yet Mr Najib’s party is not in the same powerful position as in years past. Without a large majority it will find it difficult to steamroll unpopular policies and concessions will be needed as the opposition grows in influence.

Many Malaysians point to political nepotism and endemic government corruption as driving their changing political alliances. Continuing urbanisation, economic growth, civil liberalisation and rising incomes have fostered a new group of voters wanting a change in the status quo. 

Polarisation and instability

What is worrying about this election outcome is the distraction it might cause. Malaysia has enjoyed a relatively high degree of stability, from which has flowed economic growth.

As the schism between urban and rural, and young and old, moves further apart, the country may be forced to concentrate on calming internal unrest rather than developing the economy.

This could frightenforeign investors away, encouraging more unrest as the economy contracts.

When political parties have an overwhelming majority it is easy to steer a country in the preferred direction.

If the system begins to move towards polarisation, the evolving societal dynamics have the potential to create instability, depending on how the ruling political party reacts.

This will be the greatest focus for the National Front’s next term. If Malaysian politics continues its recent trend to polarisation, the economy may suffer. The democratic process will need to be masterfully handled.

What worries investors is the uncertainty about whether Malaysia will be as successful as Japan or if Indonesia’s political disruptions from 1998 to 2004 will be more of a guide.

Either way, this week’s elections caused more problems and solved few.

Nathan Smith has a Bachelor of Communications in Journalism from Massey University and has studied international relations and conflict.