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Nomination in Romney’s sights after Iowa caucuses


If it seems like the US presidential campaign has already lasted a near-eternity, keep in mind: this campaign cycle is actually a bit shorter than the one four years ago.

Pavel Molchanov
Fri, 06 Jan 2012

If it seems like the US presidential campaign has already lasted a near-eternity, keep in mind: this campaign cycle is actually a bit shorter than the one four years ago. It took until the fall of 2011 to finalise the Republican field of candidates, whereas in the prior cycle, both Democrats and Republicans had started out almost six months earlier.

That said, the past six months – the debates, the candidates jumping in and out, and of course the non-stop series of highly entertaining gaffes – have been just the preparatory phase for the Republican presidential primaries. The first actual votes were cast on Tuesday, in the quadrennial political ritual known as the Iowa caucuses. As bizarre as it may seem to outsiders, around 120,000 voters – merely 4% of a state that itself has barely 1% of the nation’s population – really do have a disproportionate effect in deciding the next leader of the free world.

Since President Barack Obama will naturally be renominated by the Democrats for a second term, only the Republican caucuses mattered this time around. To recap the results: former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney came in first with 30,015 votes (24.6%), edging out former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum by just eight votes. Not quite a Christchurch Central-like photo finish, but still a truly razor-thin victory. Texas congressman Ron Paul gained 21%, and three candidates – former House speaker Newt Gingrich, Texas governor Rick Perry, and Minnesota congresswoman Michelle Bachmann – all had less than 15%.

Before gauging the post-Iowa state of the race, let’s take a trip down memory lane to recap one of the most unpredictable six months in American political history. The basic contours of the race have remained the same: the Republican base has been searching for a true conservative standard-bearer to take on Mr Romney, the establishment-backed candidate and a relative moderate. In the process, just about everyone has had a short-lived period of fame and surging poll numbers as the proverbial “flavor of the month”.

In August, it looked like Ms Bachmann, with her Tea Party backing, would be the most potent challenger to Mr Romney. She was knocked off the pedestal when Mr Perry entered the race, but his campaign never recovered from such gaffes as forgetting which three federal departments he planned to abolish. In October, Herman Cain, a former pizza executive, was briefly the front-runner, but sex scandals soon led to his exit. In late November and early December, Mr Gingrich was propelled by impressive debate performances into the #1 spot, but a flurry of negative ads funded by Mr Romney’s allies brought his numbers down to earth. Finally, just days ahead of the actual caucuses, Mr Santorum, a socially conservative hardliner, and Mr Paul, a libertarian icon, both gained a degree of momentum.

This brings us to today. While Mr Romney is no doubt savoring his first place finish in Iowa, what is much more important than the eight-vote victory is who came in second and third. Neither Mr Santorum nor Mr Paul is a serious threat to Mr Romney in the long run. Mr Paul is a classic “movement candidate”; he draws adoring crowds of voters who like his uncompromising libertarian and free-market ideology, but his anti-war views make him anathema to the majority of Republicans. Thus, he is not a viable candidate to ultimately get the party’s nomination. Mr Santorum is acceptable to a wider proportion of the party, but his campaign has been operating essentially on a shoestring; he simply lacks the financial resources to go head-to-head with well-financed Mr Romney in major media markets.

Mr Romney, then, finds himself exactly where he wants. His closest rivals in Iowa are not anyone he will lose sleep over. Next Tuesday, he is poised to win a landslide primary victory in New Hampshire, which neighbors Massachusetts and where many Republican voters share his moderate conservatism. The primaries in South Carolina (January 21) and Florida (January 31) are likely to be more difficult, but as long as he can avoid suffering any knockout blows, he should be in a strong position approaching “Super Tuesday” (March 6), when ten states, including such big ones as Ohio and Virginia, hold their contests. The larger the state, the more expensive the advertising, and Mr Romney’s campaign has raised more money than any other.

To be sure, it is still too early to call Mr Romney the inevitable nominee. Two potentially serious rivals – Mr Gingrich and Mr Perry – are still in the running, though as of this writing Mr Perry is “reassessing” his campaign. Both have stronger conservative credentials than Mr Romney, who has been widely criticised for his “flip-flopping” on many issues. Mr Gingrich has the longest political resume of anyone in the race, and while Washington insiders are generally out of favor given the electorate’s sour mood, he has one indisputable claim to fame: he led the Republicans’ takeover of Congress in 1994. Mr Perry, despite his appalling debate performances, is the nation’s longest-serving governor, and on his watch Texas has created more jobs than any other state. Next to Mr Romney, he is also the best-funded candidate.

Unless and until the conservative opposition to Mr Romney manages to coalesce around a single candidate – most likely Mr Santorum or Mr Gingrich – it is hard to see how he wouldn’t end up as the nominee. Ironically, perhaps the surest sign of this is that the Obama campaign has focused its firepower almost entirely on Mr Romney. However, as noted earlier, this election cycle has already seen more than its fair share of surprising reversals, and any firm predictions at what is still an early stage of the process must be taken with a big grain of salt.

Pavel Molchanov is a financial analyst in Texas. Email: pavel@alumni.duke.edu

Pavel Molchanov
Fri, 06 Jan 2012
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Nomination in Romney’s sights after Iowa caucuses
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