NZ dollar heads for 0.8% weekly gain ahead of US employment figures

The New Zealand dollar is heading for a 0.8 percent weekly gain against the greenback as investors pause ahead of US employment figures, which is seen as a bellwether for the recovery of the world's biggest economy.

The kiwi rose to 83.29 US cents at 5pm in Wellington from 82.63 cents at the start of the week, and was little changed from 83.37 cents at 8am and down from 83.54 cents yesterday. The trade-weighted index edged down to 77.51 from 77.62 yesterday, and is poised for a 1.1 percent weekly gain from 76.63 at last week's New York close.

A BusinessDesk survey of nine traders and strategists on Monday predicted the kiwi would trade between 81.20 US cents and 84.50 cents this week. Four picked the currency to remain unchanged while three said it might gain and two expected it to drop.

Economists expect the US economy added 120,000 jobs last month when the non-farm payrolls report is released on Friday in Washington. The Federal Reserve wants to see a lower unemployment rate before it starts winding back its US$85 billion monthly asset purchase programme. The greenback spiked yesterday after the European Central Bank unexpectedly cut its key rate in response to slowing growth in the regional economy.

"The brief euphoria from the European surprise has gone and all focus is on the all-important payrolls number," said Alex Hill, head of trading at HiFX in Auckland. "I can't help thinking about our interest rate outlook when you've got rate cuts in Europe and the Fed tapering further pushed out."

The New Zealand dollar has been supported by the prospect the Reserve Bank will hike local interest rates next year amid the threat of looming inflation, and stronger jobs growth data earlier this week underpinned that view. Traders are pricing in 84 basis points of hikes over the coming 12 months, according to the Overnight Index Swap curve.

HiFX's Hill said the kiwi has strong support at 82.50 US cents and is meeting resistance at 84.20 cents, but it may face "a wild ride" on Monday when trading desks open after Chinese inflation, industrial production and retail sales data is released on Saturday.

The kiwi traded at 88.04 Australian cents at 5pm in Wellington from 88.17 cents yesterday after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its growth forecast for 2014.

The local currency gained to 62.09 euro cents from 61.84 cents yesterday and fell to 51.72 British pence from 51.93 pence. It slipped to 81.72 yen from 82.31 yen yesterday.

(BusinessDesk)