NZ POLITICS DAILY: Fragility and uncertainty

There’s a lot of fragility and uncertainty in the party system at the moment.

Although National might be extremely popular at the moment (Greens on the up, National in front – poll http://www.3news.co.nz/Greens-on-the-up-National-in-front---poll/tabid/419/articleID/218258/Default.aspx, its main two coalition options are in an extremely fragile and weakened state, which could yet cause the downfall of the current Government at the coming general election.

The Act and Maori parties are suddenly looking much more vulnerable, which could make a future National-led government much less likely.

Rather than regenerating under new leader, Don Brash, the Act Party appears to have just become more dysfunctional and divided.

This is the message in two very good blog posts by Andrea Vance (It's not working, desperate Don http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/blogs/what-s-he-said/5267587/Its-not-working-desperate-Don ) and Patrick Gower (The ACT Party look pretty much stuffed http://www.3news.co.nz/The-ACT-Party-look-pretty-much-stuffed---blog/tabid/419/articleID/218325/Default.aspx).

Vance points out that Brash was expected to take the party back towards a focus on economics, ‘But instead of a definitive speech on economic policy, he chooses to hurl abuse about "Nazis" in local government, complain about the Wai 262 report (which he hasn't actually read) and celebrate David Garrett's exoneration.

Of five press releases issued since June, four were about race and one was a cheap shot at Labour over broadband’. Similarly, Gower says Act is ‘pretty much’ stuffed, ‘and certainly desperate’: 'It has gone nowhere. It is stagnant. It is treading water. It is looking like a couple of old blokes on political life support.

The latest effort with the advertisement in the Herald shows Don Brash and his mate John Ansell acting as yesterday's men with no plan. It was a cut and paste job.

So instead of being the adrenalin shot to bust them back into life the advert is more like slow euthanasia. Don Brash took the leadership on April 28. That was 11 weeks ago. Since then, Brash has been virtually anonymous.

This is what has happened - or hasn't happened - since: No re-branding of the ACT party. No significant speech on economic issues by Dr Brash. In fact we are still due a centrepiece speech on where ACT is going full stop. No high-calibre new candidates have come forward. Heather Roy has done a runner. Sinking ship stuff?'

It appears that Act really is now showing that it has run out of policy dynamism and is simply looking to score some easy popularity points, but can’t even do this.

And there seems to be an unhealthy internal dynamic at play – especially according to academic political advertising specialist Claire Robinson, who asks whether ‘we are witnessing a party in its death throes?’ Robinson normally defends political advertisements from bad press, but in this case is extremely harsh about what Act’s latest debacle represents: '[It all points] to a very dysfunctional party in which an unelected advertising official has had a dangerously disproportionate, almost Rasputinesque, amount of influence on a party’s policy direction and presentation.

It is seriously concerning that there should be so few checks on party communications in the ACT Party that an advertisement that so clearly reflected the individual political views of its creator, an unelected contractor, should be able to be published in New Zealand’s largest newspaper, and then followed up with a press statement written by the same person on behalf of the party’s leader. Only after this debacle is the contractor censured. This is what gives political advertising a bad name'.

To make matters worse for Key and National, the Maori Party has just decided to battle on to the death against the Mana Party (Maori Party: No deal with Mana <http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5265251/Maori-Party-No-deal-with-Mana> ).

The Mana Party has played the situation well, coming out of the talks with the appearance of reasonableness, maturity and a willingness to compromise – which was probably always the main objective.

The Maori Party in contrast appears foolish and sectarian, but worst of all, it’s chances of retaining the Tamaki Makaurau and Waiariki electorates has just dropped significantly – meaning that Key could be in real trouble if he needs to stitch together a coalition after 26 November. It seems that the major parties – Labour and National – continue to fail to protect and marshal their minor party coalition partners, which is one of their biggest failings under MMP.

Today’s content
Act PartyPatrick Gower (TV3): The ACT Party look pretty much stuffed – blog <http://www.3news.co.nz/The-ACT-Party-look-pretty-much-stuffed---blog/tabid/419/articleID/218325/Default.aspx> 

Andrea Vance (Stuff): It's not working, desperate Don <http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/blogs/what-s-he-said/5267587/Its-not-working-desperate-Don>

TVNZ: Brash: ‘We’re fed up pandering to Maori radicals’ <http://tvnz.co.nz/politics-news/brash-we-re-fed-up-pandering-maori-radicals-4295476>

Marika Hill (Dom Post): ACT ‘a party of cowards’ says Ansell <http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5264061/ACT-a-party-of-cowards-says-Ansell>

Marika Hill (Stuff): Act’s controversial marketing guru resigns <http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/5262933/Acts-controversial-marketing-guru-resigns>

David Fisher/NZ Herald Staff: Act ad man quits after blasting ‘apartheid’ <http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10737507>

NBR: Ansell: Chch quakes ‘massively good luck’ for John Key <http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/ansell-chch-quakes-%E2%80%98massively-good-luck%E2%80%99-john-key-ck-96912>

Audrey Young (NZH): Maori, Mana hit back over Act adverts <http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10737695>

NZPA: Does PM support Act’s ‘racist’ campaign? – Greens <http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10737738>

NZPA: ACT ad 'deeply offensive' - Maori Party <http://www.odt.co.nz/news/politics/168467/act-ad-deeply-offensive-maori-party>

NBR: ‘Too stroppy’ Act creative director quits <http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/%E2%80%98too-stroppy%E2%80%99-act-creative-director-quits-ck-96907>

The Dim-Post: 72 hours of equality, liberalism and reason <http://dimpost.wordpress.com/2011/07/10/72-hours-of-equality-liberalism-and-reason/>

Claire Robinson (Spinprofessor): ACT <http://spinprofessor.tumblr.com/post/7449563126/act>

David Farrar (Kiwiblog): ACT Angst <http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2011/07/act_angst.html>

Trevor Mallard (Red Alert): Act imploding <http://blog.labour.org.nz/index.php/2011/07/10/act-imploding/>

Kiwipolitico: Under fire <http://www.kiwipolitico.com/2011/07/under-fire/>

Imperator Fish: I Am Missing Rodney Hide <http://www.imperatorfish.com/2011/07/i-am-missing-rodney-hide.html>

TV3: ACT's mispronounciation of Maori names 'deliberate' - Dunne <http://www.3news.co.nz/ACTs-mispronounciation-of-Maori-names-deliberate---Dunne/tabid/419/articleID/218349/Default.aspx>

NBR: Brash challenges Sharples to TV debate <http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/brash-challenges-sharples-tv-debate-ne-96922>

ODT: Calvert defends Act campaign <http://www.odt.co.nz/news/politics/168573/calvert-defends-act-campaign>

Graeme Edgeler (Public address): Asking the next question <http://publicaddress.net/legalbeagle/asking-the-next-question/>

Mana/Maori relations
TV3: Mana/Maori Party ‘truce’ not going head <http://www.3news.co.nz/ManaMaori-Party-truce-not-going-ahead/tabid/419/articleID/218330/Default.aspx>

Danya Levy (Stuff): Maori Party: No deal with Mana <http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5265251/Maori-Party-No-deal-with-Mana>

RNZ: Maori Party says no deal with Harawiras Mana Party <http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/79672/maori-party-says-no-deal-with-harawira's-mana-party>

Newstalk ZB / ONE News (TVNZ): Harawira's olive branch 'tossed in the dirt' <http://tvnz.co.nz/politics-news/harawira-s-olive-branch-tossed-in-dirt-4295425>

Anthony Robins (The Standard): Maori Party chooses oblivion <http://thestandard.org.nz/maori-party-chooses-oblivion/>

Yvonne Tahana (NZH): Maori Party on mission to learn from failed byelection <http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10737619>

Natasha Burling (Newstalk ZB): Maori Party aims to restore support in Te Tai Tokerau <http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/newsdetail1.asp?storyID=200228>

Marika Hill (SST): Is there a definitive Maori voter? <http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5261811/Is-there-a-definitive-Maori-voter>

Labour’s capital gains tax
Keith Ng (Public address): Why Rightwingers Should Support the CGT <http://publicaddress.net/onpoint/why-rightwingers-should-support-the-cgt/>

Editorial (NZH): New tax better late than never <http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10737467>

John Tamihere (Sunday News): Labour takes wake-up pill <http://www.stuff.co.nz/sunday-news/opinion/5261922/Labour-takes-wake-up-pill>

Danya Levy (Stuff): Labour's capital gains tax aims misguided - Key <http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5267198/Labours-capital-gains-tax-aims-misguided-Key>

interest.co.nz: New tax would need to apply to family home to work – Key <http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10737734%20>

Rob Hosking (NBR): Emotionalism and illogical rhetoric define capital gains tax arguments <http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/hum-buggery-emotionalism-and-illogic-define-capital-gains-tax-arguments-rh-p-96905> 

Bernard Hickey (NZH): PM who favours elderly a signal for young to flee <http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10737444>

Matt McCarten (NZH): Greed ain’t good, now it’s being understood <http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10737457>

Tapu Misa (NZH): Capital gains tax a no brainer for NZ <http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10737616>

Anthony Hubbard (SST): A tax for people in glass house <http://www.stuff.co.nz/sunday-star-times/opinion/5261282/A-tax-for-people-in-glass-house>

John Hartevelt (SST): Powers in waiting find their mojo <http://www.stuff.co.nz/sunday-star-times/opinion/5261489/Powers-in-waiting-find-their-mojo>

SST: Turia says no to capital gains tax <http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5261926/Turia-says-no-to-capital-gains-tax>

Barry Soper (Newstalk ZB): Political Report for July 11 <http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/newsdetail1.asp?storyID=200190>

The Standard: Sweeping the board <http://thestandard.org.nz/sweeping-the-board/>

Paul Little (NZH): Labour gamble a winning idea <http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10737459>

Labour’s Electoral Act breach
NZPA: Labour pamphlets 'breached rules' <http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5263596/Labour-pamphlets-breached-rules> 

Audrey Young (NZH): Public Spending on election ads comes under spotlight again <http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10737689>

Andrea Vance (Dom Post): Labour faces police postcard inquiry <http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5264057/Labour-faces-police-postcard-inquiry>

TV3: Labour ‘didn’t intend to breach Electoral Act’ <http://www.3news.co.nz/Labour-didnt-intend-to-breach-Electoral-Act/tabid/423/articleID/218211/Default.aspx>

David Farrar (Kiwiblog): Labour referred to the Police <http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2011/07/labour_referred_to_the_police_for_electoral_act_breach.html%20>

Claire Robinson (Spinprofessor): Labour’s referral to the Police a vexatious response to antidiluvian electoral laws <http://spinprofessor.tumblr.com/post/7448611090/labours-referral-to-the-police-a-vexatious-response-to>

3 News Poll
TV3: Greens on the up, National in front – poll <http://www.3news.co.nz/Greens-on-the-up-National-in-front---poll/tabid/419/articleID/218258/Default.aspx>

NZPA: Greens flying high at Labour’s expense <http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5263692/Greens-flying-high-at-Labours-expense>

Other
Deborah Coddington (NZH): Naïve Green leaders run party into ground <http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10737446>

Vernon Small (Stuff): Goff re-enforces Greens-Labour pact <http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5267707/Goff-re-enforces-Greens-Labour-pact>

Dave Armstrong (Dom Post): Alas, no will and no cojones, and so no satire <http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/comment/columnists/dave-armstrong/5264871/Alas-no-will-and-no-cojones-and-so-no-satire>

Willie Jackson (NZH): National Radio a 'disgrace' over Maori issues <http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10737615>

Editorial (NZH): Caution vital over gender pay reforms <http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10737631>

Peter Cullen (Stuff): Employers’ body left with little choice <http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion/5265327/Employers-body-left-with-little-choice>

Rob O’Neill (SST): Women still shut out of Kiwi boardrooms <http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/5261585/Women-still-shut-out-of-Kiwi-boardrooms>

Martin Van Beynen (Press): Three depts investigate trawler <http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/5264288/Three-depts-investigate-trawler>

John Braddock (WSWS): Slave labour conditions in New Zealand’s fishing industry <http://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/jul2011/fish-j09.shtml>

Lois Cairns (SST): Key voices first in Pike River inquiry <http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/5261743/Key-voices-first-in-Pike-River-inquiry>

Andrea Vance (Dom Post): Coal lobby membership ‘inappropriate’ <http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5264060/Coal-lobby-membership-inappropriate>

NZPA: Keys says ETS in good shape <http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10737766>

NZPA: Aussie carbon tax to impact NZ <http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5263751/Aussie-carbon-tax-to-impact-NZ>

Wilma McCorkindale (Fairfax): Protestors rally against job losses <http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/5261409/Protesters-rally-against-job-losses>

Grant Duncan (Policy Matters): Neo-liberalism without doctrines? <http://masspolicy.blogspot.com/2011/07/neo-liberalism-without-doctrines.html>

Ben Clark (The Standard): Experts warn Welfare Working Group <http://thestandard.org.nz/experts-warn-welfare-working-group/>

Dene Mackenzie (ODT): Are older workers youth job threat? <http://www.odt.co.nz/print/168545>

Jamie Morton (NZH): Cases of child abuse expected to nosedive <http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10737661>

Yvonne Tahana (NZH): Tamaki ‘mocked’ and banned from meeting <http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10737685>

Derek Cheng (NZH): Lifting celebrity name secrecy part of law shake-up <http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10737620>

Dom Post: Today in politics: Monday <http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/5264059/Today-in-politics-Monday>

Andrea Vance (Dom Post): A tell-all confession - my days working for the 'gutter press' <http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/comment/5264885/A-tell-all-confession-my-days-working-for-the-gutter-press>