NZ POLITICS DAILY: Labour and National lower horizons

Labour and National want to lower our horizons, and they need to convince us that their central campaign planks of a capital gains tax and assets sales, respectively, are the ‘necessary medicine’ to correct the country’s economic problems.

This is the type of negative politics that will characterize the 2011 election campaign. Basically, the two political issues that are shaping up to be defining election campaign debates are both likely to be viewed by the electorate as negative ones. Hence without any great enthusiasm for either party’s plans, the sale of each proposal will largely depend on the argument that one policy is ‘less worse’ than that of their opponents.

This is the upshot of what Guyon Espiner is reporting today in Labour’s own people not happy with capital gains tax, in which it seems that even Labour’s own supporters are not keen on the introduction of a new tax, unless it is framed as the ‘lesser evil on offer’. According to Espiner, Labour’s biggest group of Labour respondents strongly disapproves of the idea of the capital gains tax - 31% of those polled. But when the new tax is counterposed to asset sales, there seems to be greater acceptance of the idea: ‘I guess if they can frame it as an either/or then they've got a bit more chance of trying to say their unpopular policy is the one to go for’. And quite simply, Labour has to come up with some income generation strategy – it will just get hammered if it says we shouldn’t sell assets but can’t explain how we will rebuild Christchurch. And they know very well that state asset sales are political poison – no one really likes them. So far Labour hasn’t been able to put enough attention on asset sales, but if every time they can get attacked on their cgt they can turn that into a choice between that or asset sales they might win. So the election campaign, in a sense, is about lowering our horizon to accept things we don’t particularly want. That, of course, is nothing new in New Zealand politics – it’s been one of the major themes for the last 25 years.

The refugee asylum issue is also a chance for Labour and National to go negative and campaign for the xenophobic vote. At first it seemed that Labour might see the issue as a chance to differentiate itself from National’s hardline/populist stance – especially because Phil Goff was reported as being highly critical of John Key over the matter – listen, for example, the RNZ audio story: Will strong border protection be a vote winner for Key?. But instead it turned out that Goff is actually just unhappy with the prime minister telling them they're ‘not welcome’ because it sounds a bit mean. But they're still not welcome!

The Act Party, too, is mired in negativity. Surely Don Brash must now be wondering if he shouldn’t have gone with his Plan B of launching a new rightwing party instead of taking over Act. Instead Brash continues with his project of cleaning out the party and injecting outsiders with no background in Act into the new brand – such as Don Nicolson, who will attempt to win over the farmer vote (but will be perceived by many as ‘another old fogey’ in the mold of Brash). There will be a lot of disgruntled Act insiders. Brash will be arguing that it’s necessary to hollow out the party and reinvent the party brand, but so far it doesn’t appear to be working, and the danger is that he may destroy anything that’s left organizationally. The latest negative headline is: Brash has difficulty recruiting Maori ACT candidates, and it seems that the only real Maori contender was deemed unsuitable because he listed his greatest hero as Rob Muldoon! Similarly, the party is going to have trouble recruiting women – see: Derek Cheng’s Bring on the girls…Brash acts to fight white blokes image. Brash might be inclined to blame the prior party brand for these woes, but really it’s all his own making, and it’s not like he can blame the current MPs or current party organization for the failure to fire. He has failed to spark the revival, and increasingly Act insider will be saying that it’s Brash and his approach that are the problem.

The repeal of TVNZ’s Charter is the other negative story of the day – see: TVNZ released from ‘unrealistic dual mandate’. But the reality is that Labour’s Charter was always a sham, and the repeal means that simply the death of any pretense that TVNZ is a public broadcaster. Nonetheless, Clare Curran and the Greens are making the most of this negative situation – see: The slippery slope and TVNZ charter needed for 'healthy democracy' – Greens.

Bryce Edwards, NZPD Editor (bryce.edwards@otago.ac.nz)

Today’s content:

Act Party

Derek Cheng (NZH): Bring on the girls…Brash acts to fight white blokes image

RadioLive: Brash has difficulty recruiting Maori ACT candidates

Andrea Vance (Stuff): Brash tries to attract Maori candidates

Ally Mullord (TV3): ACT ‘not putting the boot into Maori’ – Brash

TV3: Nicolson agrees with ACT on race and climate

Chris Trotter (Bowalley Road): Wake-Up Calls

Reading the Maps: Browns, reds and rednecks: the real meaning of Ansell’s new ad

John Minto (NZH): Act scaremongering about Maori privilege a sick joke

Russell Brown (Public address): Meanwhile in Epsom ...