NZ POLITICS DAILY: The political year; Housing & RMA; Inequality and wealth; Welfare; Media and blogosphere
NZ POLITICS DAILY: January 27 2015
NZ POLITICS DAILY: January 27 2015
The election and scandal fatigue from 2014 is slowly wearing off, and both politicians and public are about to be confronted by another year of parliamentary politics. This year is unlikely to be as bizarre - and will certainly be less busy - than the last. So what will be the main themes and issues? Overall, it looks likely that economics and related economic-based issues will dominate the year. This is what we can expect all political parties to be orientated towards – especially the Labour Party. Under Andrew Little, the party’s crucial rebuild is likely to be the main focus of the year, while the National Government simply attempts to govern without too much controversy.
A traditional, economic year
Following on from such a scandal-focused year, 2015 is almost certain to be characterised by more traditional concerns. Primarily these will include the economy and other other resource-based issues: unemployment and job growth, inequality, housing, the cost of living, and perhaps the Government’s promised return to budget surplus. As I explained this morning on TV3’s Firstline, both parties are desperate to focus on such issues – watch the 4-minute interview, Can Andrew Little rebuild the Labour Party?
Both Andrew Little and John Key are giving their ‘state of the nation’ speeches tomorrow, which are previewed by Vernon Small today in his article, Key talks housing while Little backs small business. See also, Gordon Campbell’s On tomorrow’s speeches by John Key and Andrew Little.
Little’s speech is likely to be relentless in its focus on jobs and economic inequality. For good measure, and to show that Labour isn’t veering into leftwing radicalism, there is likely to be a strong dash of ‘small business’ in his speech too. This ‘jobs and inequality’ focus is obviously an attempt to remake Little’s Labour Party into one in tune with the wider public, following on from a long period in which the party has been perceived to be a ‘social issues’ party run by liberals. As I explained in my Herald feature in December, A year of controversies that didn't matter, Little needs ‘to thoroughly ditch the PC image of Labour. The party can't afford to continue to be associated with notions of the "nanny state" and "identity politics". Such an abrupt shift won't be easy. Social liberals still dominate the party and will resist any attempt to remake it into a more traditional Labour Party’.
This reorientation towards economics has also been spotted by Guyon Espiner in his recent Listener interview with Little: ‘What Little is not saying is as important as what he is saying. He’s talking almost exclusively about the economy. Social issues aren’t getting a look in. MPs are being told to put away some of their pet projects for another day. Euthanasia is one. “As a policy I support it but it’s not a priority now,” Little says. MP Iain Lees-Galloway was to pick up the euthanasia bill but has been told to shelve it. “It’s just not something we need to be taking our time with at the moment.”’ – see: Big little leader (paywalled).
National has, mostly, been advantaged by the public’s own focus on economic issues, which partly explains John Key’s significant victory last year. But, National is still vulnerable on many economic issues, especially on inequality. So we can expect that National will put much effort into showing that it is dealing with child poverty, especially in this year’s Budget. And as a Dominion Post editorial says this week, National might be able to deal adequately with the issue: ‘There will also be political clamour about child poverty, but whether this is a big problem for Key is doubtful. He will make some small changes - perhaps a bigger school lunch programme - and most of his followers will be content. Voters say they care about poverty, but it's doubtful if many Key followers would switch votes over it’ – see: Voters await signs of a new game plan.
John Key’s ‘state of the nation’ speech is going to deal with the Government’s contentious social housing programme (and perhaps housing affordability more generally). According to the NBR’s Rob Hosking, Key is likely to attempt to sell the programme in the context of progressive devolution of social service provision by the NGO sector, much in the vein of the Whanau Ora programme – see: Key, Little, to launch new political year (paywalled).
Other economic-based issues, that might dominate the year include the Resource Management Act reforms (as covered in my column Blue-Green battle over housing crisis and RMA), and the possible Trans-Pacific free trade deal, and perhaps even health, too.
The state of the economy will be closely watched – especially since National was re-elected on the basis of what it has promised to deliver. And recent fiscal improvements suggest that hopes of returning to surplus are still alive – see Vernon Small’s Better Budget deficit renews Government surplus hopes. For a useful assessment of the various financial metrics, see Fiona Rotherham’s feature, Do we really have a rockstar economy?
A vacuous and quiet year?
The signs, so far, are that this year will be rather politically colourless. The National Government is, according to Matthew Hooton, entering ‘its seventh year without a clear agenda’. In his latest column, Hooton admonishes National – and particularly Steven Joyce – as creating a government without any real vision or ambition: ‘Joyce avoids organising frameworks, let alone anything that might risk being seen as 1980s- or 1990s-style utopian visions to be foisted on the populace. Instead, even more than Helen Clark’s, this government’s efforts are focused on what works: to-do lists…. There is no longer even one big-picture policy move promised’ – see: The year the worm may turn (paywalled).
In an earlier column, Hooton complains that ‘the lack of content in the government’s programme has become glaring’, and ‘Lacking a sense of direction as it begins its third term, Mr Key’s government is at risk of being swamped by the endless mini-scandals any decent opposition drums up’ – see: For John Key: summer of reflection please (paywalled).
Labour, too, seems to be learning from National’s success, and is reportedly attempting to emulate the pragmatic vagueness. Hooton says that Labour is going to avoid creating policy, and instead leave such matters for government bureaucrats to do once Labour is in power. He says, ‘This is all bad news for those who believe politics should be a contest of ideas but the median voter model will always trump philosophers’ noble theses’.
This shift away from policy detail is also examined by Andrea Vance in her column, A game-plan that may just work for Little. She argues that Labour needs to create a new identity: ‘Since defeat in 2008, the party has lost its way. The party grew frightened to articulate what it was and infighting over this identity crisis tore it apart. It appears Little's address will be a reminder of social democratic principles that were Labour's bedrock’. Furthermore, ‘One must-do is overcoming the idea that it is a party of special interest groups’.
Labour’s rebuild will therefore be reliant on good spindoctors and organisers, both of which are reported on in Vernon Small’s Andrew Little seeking positive coverage and Claire Trevett’s Nominees announced for Labour Party presidency.
Making predictions for 2015
Making political forecasts is said to be ‘a mug’s game’, but nonetheless there are always a few willing to do so. The most interesting, so far, have been by the Fairfax journalists in Parliament, which you can read in David Farrar’s post, Fairfax’s 2015 predictions. Not only are they predicting the return of Judith Collins to Cabinet, and open warfare in the Greens, but also the retirement of Winston Peters.
Of course, the reliability of such predictions is open to question, and you can see how the same forecasters went with their previous predictions – see: How accurate were our political predictions for 2014?
David Farrar makes his own forecasts in 2015 predictions. These include: ‘Labour will reach 30% in at least one poll in 2015’; ‘There will be a by-election in 2015’; and ‘Jacinda Ardern will be anointed Labour Party Deputy Leader’.
Andrea Vance provides a list of rising stars, including Andrew Little, Todd McClay, Phil Twyford, James Shaw, Fletcher Tabateau, and Ron Mark – see: Political faces to watch out for. She also notes the potential for fun provided by curmudgeonly backbenchers, Judith Collins and Maurice Williamson.
And for a column providing less ‘honest forecast’ and more ‘mischievous advice, see James Griffin’s My 2015 to-do list by PM John Key.
Finally, when Andrew Little and John Key give their ‘state of the nation’ speeches tomorrow, it will be interesting to see how many times they repeat key words. ‘Jobs’, ‘inequality’ and ‘housing’ might be expected to be repeated often. For an interesting look back on the changing use of words by John Key, see Charlie Mitchell’s The language of John Key, akshually.
Today's Links
Political parties and political year
Gordon Campbell (Scoop): On tomorrow’s speeches by John Key and Andrew Little
TV3: Can Andrew Little rebuild the Labour Party?
Vernon Small (Stuff): Key talks housing while Little backs small business
Liam Hehir (Stuff): Labour needs to devise a strategy
Rob Hosking (NBR): Key, Little, to launch new political year (paywalled)
Newswire: John Key back for first Cabinet meeting
No Right Turn: Labour: Time to stop being a valet
Claire Trevett (Herald): Nominees announced for Labour Party presidency
TV3: Two contesting Labour presidency
Claire Trevett (Herald): Little cash for Labour leader - rivals got more
Colin James (Otago Daily Times): The environment is changing — even for Greens
Cameron Slater (Whaleoil): No, it’s the benefit of having an accurate pollster on the payroll
Pete George (Your NZ): Has Bradbury given up on Mana?
Radio NZ: Land and language top priorities for Flavell
Housing and RMA reform
Liam Dann (Herald): Time-lag a risk in housing supply boost
John Palethorpe (On the Left): Sort Your Act Out
Nelson Mail: Editorial – Balancing act needed in RMA revamp
John Braddock (WSWS): Housing affordability crisis worsens in New Zealand
Inequality and wealth
Eric Crampton (Offsetting behaviour): CEO pay and inequality
Peter Lyons (Herald): Forget evil rich - flaw is in the system
Eileen Goodwin (ODT): Corporate pay levels queried
Stuff: The hidden mansions of Billionaire's Bay
Jess McAllen (Stuff): Super-rich kids: How the other half lives
Rachael Goldsmith (Daily Blog): CEO pay rises show health system is upside down
Lewis Holden: Wages: Labour Cost Index vs Quarterly Employment Survey
Welfare
Catriona MacLennan (Herald): Benefit debt punishment out of all proportion to 'crime'
Waikato Times: Editorial – Welfare policies not delivering
Geoff Simmons (Gareth’s world): Ten Reasons to Scrap our Benefit System
Media and blogosphere
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): Should we ditch Concert FM?
Pete George (Your NZ): The Blubble
Ben Uffindell (The Civilian): The Civilian 2.0
Whaleoil: Whaleoil by numbers
Lyn Prentice (The Standard): Where is Cameron Slater?
Death of Saudi King
Herald: Flag tribute to late Saudi King Abdullah a bridge too far for many
No Right Turn: National loves foreign despots
No Right Turn: A question
Auckland mayoralty
Mitch McCann (RadioLive): Len Brown denies seeking third term
Bernard Orsman (Herald): Len Brown wants another term as Auckland's mayor
David Farrar (Kiwiblog): Brown has one vote!
Dog attacks and ethnicity
Stuff: SPCA: Bad dogs not a race issue
Brendan Manning (Herald): SPCA boss Bob Kerridge dogged by comments about owner ethnicity and dog attack convictions
Other
Waikato Times: Editorial: If SkyCity abandons convention centre, too bad
Karl du Fresne (NZCPR): Heavy-handed Policing
Belinda Feek (Waikato Times): Sensible Sentencing Trust calls for more tracking of sex offenders
No Right Turn: What happens if you question our sacred cows
Gareth Morgan: What does the Treaty of Waitangi mean to you?
Donna-Lee Biddle (Waikato Times): Patient frustrated after having acute surgery postponed four times
Stella Blake-Kelly and Megan Whelan (The Wireless): Beyond the ballot box
Steven Cowan (Against the current): Where is our Syriza?
Tim Montgomerie (Conservative Home): The world’s most successful conservative? Ten observations about New Zealand’s John Key
Danyl Mclauchlan (Dim-Post): Vague Trotteresque Musings of the Day
The Press: Editorial: Official Information Act vital to open government
Waikato Times: Editorial: Information is critical
Ben Heather (Stuff): Taitville least religious place in NZ
Pete George (Your NZ): Aotearoa New Zealand?
Talia Shadwell (Stuff): Women a growing force in police ranks
Chris Trotter (Daily Blog): Liberty. Equality. Fraternity. Some Thoughts on the Political Trinity
Laura Bootham (Radio NZ): Moves to reassure public over water rights
TVNZ: Petition to wipe gay sex convictions wins support on Facebook