New Zealand as a whole stands to make a small profit under the Kyoto protocol, but the Government may have to pay, new figures show.The report of New Zealand's position under the Kyoto Protocol showed New Zealand's projected position had improved from a s
New Zealand as a whole stands to make a small profit under the Kyoto protocol, but the Government may have to pay, new figures show.
The report of New Zealand's position under the Kyoto Protocol showed New Zealand's projected position had improved from a surplus of 9.6 million tonnes to 11.4 million.
A surplus worth $231m, at the current carbon prices, Climate Change Minister Nick Smith announced today.
The improvement was based on lower agricultural emissions due to ongoing drought in some regions and updated figures on forest removals from improved land use and carbon accounting system information.
The projections included estimated effects of National's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Without the ETS New Zealand's deficit would be 22m tonnes or $446m, Dr Smith said.
Despite the overall surplus the Government will face a "substantial deficit" because post-1989 foresters were eligible to claim credits for their trees, he said.
The deficit will be dealt with in the budget next month.
New Zealand's Kyoto commitment was to stabilise net emissions at 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012.
"The only reason New Zealand was in surplus is because the growth of post-1989 forests is more than offsetting the 23 percent increase in gross emissions," Dr Smith said.
"I am still quite cautious of these estimates as they are based on projections of future emissions."
The actual position would not be known until after the first commitment period ends in 2012, he said.
The exact position would be known in 2015 when New Zealand's national greenhouse gas inventory had been internationally reviewed.
Total energy and industrial and waste sector emissions projections for 2008-2012 were largely unchanged. Agricultural emissions for the period had decreased from last years projection because recovery from drought had been slower than expected.
Net removals from forestry were projected to be lower than 2009 projections due to the new mapping system which resulted in decreased emissions and deforestation emissions projected to be higher than expected.
Last year the projections showed New Zealand's position move from deficit into a surplus.
