A deteriorating fiscal outlook means the Department of Conservation is unlikely to be able to rely on taxpayers for funds to cover its expanding area, New Zealand Institute of Economic Research says in an insight document.
The department will have to spread its resources more thinly over wider areas, to the detriment of its conservation outcomes. Its options include increasing efficiency, finding new ways of raising revenue, or rationalising the area managed.
"In New Zealand's situation, the stewardship lands in particular could be worked harder or sold to provide funding for improving conservation outcomes," NZIER said.
"If more funding were available, the additional revenue could be used to acquire new lands of greater priority for protection and to shift the portfolio of conservation lands away from the current preponderance of mountain, rock and forest to include more of the scarcer and more vulnerable lowland habitats."
The Government is proposing to remove 7058ha of land from schedule four restrictions on mining.
NZIER said those in favour "talk the language of economic development", and those against talk of harm to New Zealand's clean, green reputation.
"What both sides lack in the debate so far is a way to express and weigh up the consequences for national well-being when considering conservation or mining in particular locations.
"An informed debate and decision needs to draw on economic tools to reveal and compare the value of both use and conservation of natural resources of land, water and what lies above and below them."
In 2002 an NZIER study found that fuller utilisation of mineral resources under conservation lands could increase the level of gross domestic product (GDP) by 1.3 percent or more, depending on how much area was opened up to mining.
Current uses of conservation lands made some contribution to GDP and incomes but at a low rate per unit area conserved. These uses were also regarded as having a low environmental impact and high contribution to the non-market outputs of those lands, NZIER said.