OCR on hold until March - iPredict forecasts
Market predicts OCR won't be hiked until March but a second rise, to 3%, is not expected until June.
Predictions of official cash rate (OCR) hikes have eased further this week, based on the latest snapshot from the online predictions market.
iPredict is forecasting Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard will hold off on increasing the OCR until March, when it will rise to 2.75%, with a second hike to 3% in June.
In other economic predictions by iPredict, expectations for GDP growth have remained steady – expected to be at 0.6% for the September and December quarters and 0.4% for the March quarter.
Unemployment for the September quarter remains forecast to be 6.4%, followed up by 6.2% in the December quarter and 6.2% in the March 2012 quarter.
inflation expectations have also remained steady, with annual inflation expected to be 5% in the September quarter, 2.8% in the December quarter and 2.6% in the March 2012 quarter.
Meanwhile iPredict forecasts the election-night gap between National and Labour to be much lower than that suggested by the average of polls from the country’s major television broadcasters this weekend.
While the average TV poll suggests National will win 56.7% of the party vote and Labour 27.8% (a gap of 28.9%), iPredict is forecasting a National party vote of just 50%, with Labour winning 28.5% (a gap of 2.5%).
In electorate contests, Labour’s electorate-only candidate Damien O’Connor now risks leaving Parliament with his changes in West Coast-Tasman deteriorating to just 45%.
Georgina Bond
Mon, 03 Oct 2011
Mon, 03 Oct 2011
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OCR on hold until March - iPredict forecasts
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