Pending boom bigger than 2004-08 - BIS Shrapnel

Look forward to a construction boom peaking in 2016 that will be bigger than anything we've seen.

Work on leaky buildings will add to the momentum of the Auckland housing sector and Canterbury rebuild, according to construction analyst BIS Shrapnel .

Looking out to 2019, BIS Shrapnel says building consent values are forecast to reach a new record high in 2016 to more than $10 billion.

“This level of activity would exceed the historically high levels recorded over the boom period of 2004-08.”

“We expect Auckland to experience strong growth in residential construction over most of the next five years,” BIS Shrapnel senior project manager Adeline Wong says.

The number of dwelling consents in Auckland is expected to increase from 4760 in 2012/13 to an estimated 6350 in 2013/14 and then to around 10,000 by 2017/18.

While Christchurch reconstruction will provide a major boost to the non-residential building sector over the next five years, BIS Shrapnel also expects a pick-up in new building and refurbishment activity in the warehouse, factory and office building sectors in the North Island as leasing activity gathers pace in response to domestic and global economic growth over the next two to three years.

“The non-residential building sector over the next five years may get an extra lift from potentially wider earthquake strengthening work in office buildings and schools in Wellington in particular.

“However, there is also a downside risk to our forecasts in that the timing and scale of Christchurch reconstruction and also seismic work in Wellington may not be as expected.

“Some owners of quake-damaged and earthquake-risk properties may not commit to redevelopment in the short term, which would affect the overall outlook.”

c.hutch@clear.net.nz