Political & Economic week ahead: GDP figures this Thursday
NBR politics and economics editor Rob Hosking breaks down the week ahead on NBR Radio and on demand on MyNBR Radio.
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Scrutiny
New Zealanders will get a clearer indication of the extent of the economic slowdown over this week.
GDP figures are out on Thursday: the average economic forecast is for a quarterly 0.6% rise, which takes annual GDP to 2.6% – depending on revisions and there are likely to be a few of these.
There will also be revisions, probably quite major, to Statistics New Zealand’s current account data, due out on Wednesday.
The current account is New Zealand’s longstanding economic vulnerable spot – it has been in deficit since the first oil shock and the accompanying slump in meat and wool prices in 1973.
More domestically, we will get to see how the recent run of economic bad news has affected households, with the ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey out on Friday. That fell to its lowest level in three years in the previous release: the question is whether it shows a rebound or not.
It is the main forward looking indicator this week: the other releases are more about the previous quarter.
Politically, also, the consumer confidence survey is something of a bellwether for how households view the economy and their own prospects.
It is the closest there is to a survey of the infamous “hip pocket nerve,” so in this sense it will be watched closely by the politicians.
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NBR Radio
Mon, 14 Sep 2015
Mon, 14 Sep 2015
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Political & Economic week ahead: GDP figures this Thursday
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