Political & Economic week ahead: TPP fallout and new OECD tax plans
Rob Hosking gives his in-depth analysis on the big stories to watch out for this week on NBR Radio and on demand on MyNBR Radio.
Parliament re-gathers itself this week, with MPs back from school holidays and Prime Minister John Key back from the Middle East.
There are two big international events to debate: the Trans Pacific Partnership and the OECD’s radical and far reaching proposals to crack down on tax and, in the process, give tax regulators a lot more power.
The TPP has split the Left and, even if it does not lead to anything as dramatic as Labour MPs voting different ways on any relevant legislation, it has exacerbated inner tensions among a political group not exactly renowned for relaxed collegiality.
National will be moving to heighten that tension as much as it can, in Parliament and out of it, over the coming weeks, although the government would do well to not become too caught up in parliamentary games of one upmanship. Getting a deal – and getting one that will benefit New Zealand – is far, far more important than making Labour leader Andrew Little or Labour’s dwindling band of economic realists feel a bit uncomfortable.
National could face some of its own political discomfort this week: the end of year government accounts will be released by the Treasury on Wednesday afternoon, and they could show a budget surplus has come a year earlier than was forecast.
That, though, is less important economically than what is happening in the real economy, and there are some, tentative, signs growth is running stronger than what was expected.
This week some data will confirm, or not, the trend from recent business surveys: manufacturing figures are out on Thursday and inflation data is being released on Friday.
Both these should be ecouraging: manufacturing has had nearly three years of unbroken expansion, and price inflation continues to stay well below 1%.
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NBR Radio
Mon, 12 Oct 2015
Mon, 12 Oct 2015
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Political & Economic week ahead: TPP fallout and new OECD tax plans
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