The latest retail sales figures from Statistics New Zealand show a sector with minimal growth.
Total retail sales were basically unchanged – a statistically insignificant drop of less than 0.1%.
Core retail – which separates out the always-volatile vehicle related industries -fell 0.6%.
The consensus market forecast was for a rise of 0.2% for core retail sales.
15 of the 20 core retail industries recorded falls in sales, but most were relatively small movements.
The exceptions to the small movements were hardware retailing (down 5.8% or $7 million) and appliance retailing (down 2.2% or $5 million.)
Of the two, hardware sales have been increasing 0.2% a month since March this year, but sales are still 8.2% below than the peak in September 2007.
Overall, the trend for core retail sales has been slowly rising since its decline was arrested in February. However the rise since February has been 0.9%, or an average of 0.12 a month.
And in actual terms – as opposed to seasonally adjusted terms, which most of Statistics New Zealand’s figures use – core sales rose 1.4% in March; fell 4.6% in April; fell a further 1.9% in May; fell 2.4% in June, rose 4.8% in July; and fell by 4.5% in July.
The vehicle related sector was stronger this month, but as noted above, the month-to-month movements for this group can be large, even when seasonally adjusted.
Motor vehicle sales rose 2.3% ($14 million), which follows an identical decrease the previous month. Fuel sales rose 2.1% ($11 million) after a 1.2% ($6 million) drop in July.
On a regional basis, sales in all parts of the country except Canterbury showed declines in August.
Rob Hosking
Thu, 14 Oct 2010