The Dragon and the Elephant

COMMENT

A 20-day standoff between Indian and Chinese troops in the disputed Ladakh region of eastern Kashmir ended without escalation last month. Now the dust has settled, some trends are crystallising in South Asia.

New Delhi, especially, is making a concerted effort to bolster its defences to better deal with similar flare-ups in the future.

After the Himalayan Mountain border spat, Chinese state media heralded Premier Li Keqiang’s Indian visit with headlines declaring the "Dragon and elephant dance together", with coverage emphasising common interests – trade and regional peace – while playing down divisions.  

Given how completely Beijing backed down on the issue, and a resultant apologetic tour by Chinese officials, it appears India is viewed aseconomically important for China and perhaps too tough militarily to bully.

The standoff occurred along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the effective border between the two. It is far from perfectly formed and China has a history of pushing up to the line.

A growing mistrust

In April, Chinese troops crossed the de-facto border, forcing New Delhi to send troops into the mountains to block further advances.

Things became tense. But the unease dissipated, with a peaceful withdrawal of troops to their original positions. 

As the weaker power, India has come out ahead politically. Forcing a withdrawal of Chinese troops in a highly-charged environment is a major win, especially as Indian officials made bold claims during the crisis that they would not bow to Chinese pressure.

What led to the standoff is partly explained by the history of Sino-Indian relations. But an equally important factor is the increasing militarisation of the border. It is no secret that both nations are building their military capabilities, which will continue to affect future regional security.

After the dispute a number of security and economic events in India suggest that although the two heavyweights have much more economic co-operation to exercise, there remains an underlying mutual suspicion.

In a highly political move in Dharamsala, on May 24 Indian police arrested a 33-year-old Tibetan man suspected of being a Chinese spy.

Tibetan intelligence reports say the suspect, Pema Tsering, is a member of China’s People's Liberation Army. 

Then India’s Defence Ministry confirmed discussions are continuing over the purchase of 15 Chinook and 22 Apache helicopters from Boeing Corporation.

India is already the world’s largest arms importer, with a defence budget close to $NZ60 billion just this year – and growing.

Negotiating with a US arms manufacturer may be an effort to diversify away from Russia, reducing a dependence on Moscow for defence.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was also in Japan last week. The two nations are reportedly set to confirm plans for the Indian purchase of Japanese US-2 amphibious aircraft.

The deal would be the first sale of Japanese military hardware since restrictions were placed on its export of weapons systems and other equipment. This is just one of many signs New Delhi is trying to regenerate its role in regional and global affairs. 

Indians wary, China concerned

But it is not all about weapons shopping for New Delhi. India on May 22 successfully test fired off Goa its indigenously-developed BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, with a reported range of 290km.

Beijing has recently expressed concern that such development is bringing the Chinese mainland into range.

On a different, but related, tack a recent survey by the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Australia revealed an astounding 83% of Indians view China as a security threat.

It also showed 95% of Indians feel a strong military is important for India to achieve its global goals. In light of this it is easy to why the political opposition and Indian media pressured the government during the recent spat to spurn any Chinese olive leaf.

And yet, even as India builds its military strength, a $NZ1 billion loan deal with China was signed on May 21 with Essar Oil Ltd.

India’s second largest private refiner will supply refined products to top state oil producer PetroChina from a refinery capable of delivering 405,000 barrels of oil per day. The contact should go some way in mending their strained relationship.

While relationships between China and India are often tense, they also complex. They share regional space and compete for influence over third countries even as a deep mutual mistrust simmers.

China may still be the stronger military power but India is quickly closing the gap.

Nathan Smith has a Bachelor of Communications in Journalism from Massey University and has studied international relations and conflict.