Why Canterbury earthquake was not a miracle

The lack of lives lost in the Canterbury earthquake, which had a greater intensity than that of Haiti in January, is no miracle.

In Haiti, the death was nearly 230,000, thanks to poor building design and construction. Yet at 7.0 on the Richter scale, the Haiti earthquake had less intensity than Canterbury’s 7.1.

By comparison with Haiti, where virtually no buildings was unscathed, no modern buildings in Christchurch were affected and inhabitants of most of those that were had time to escape.

Only two people were admitted to hospital after being hit by falling bricks or glass. While remarkable, this is in fact the result of modern earthquake engineering.

The total damage bill in Canterbury is roughly estimated at about $2 billion, while latest estimates in Haiti are $US11.5 billion ($16 billion).

In Canterbury, heritage buildings had the worst damage, but none completely collapsed. Walls came down and some roofs partially fell. Most of these were small businesses or private residences that were not required to have mandatory earthquake strengthening.

The world’s strongest earthquakes are those above 8.5 on the Richter scale, the biggest most recent being the 8.8-magnitude one in Chile in February.

Some circumstances about earthquakes are fortuitous: the Chile one occurred early in the morning when most people were asleep and on a weekend (as with Christchurch). But the Chile quake was offshore and most of the damage was caused by the resulting tsunami.

That was not the case in Canterbury, though many living in coastal suburbs immediately evacuated their homes and took off to higher places. More education is obviously needed.

While the Chile quake killed 521 people, and damage was extensive to Concepción city (at one million more than twice as big as Christchurch with much more population density), the country was able to recover quickly thanks to good planning, preparation and reconstruction.

Chile had strict building codes, which were lacking in corrupt and poverty-stricken Haiti.

Like New Zealand, Chile has benefited enormously in recent decades from free-market reforms and an open economy. Both countries are in the OECD, the rich nations’ club.

The role of prosperity and economic growth in being able to withstand natural disasters is often forgotten. Opponents of growth often play on fears of pandemics due to globalisation, and prevent development or replacement of unsafe buildings.

The post-disaster activities in Christchurch today are due to good management, not good luck. Mayor Bob Parker deservedly will be a major beneficiary for his handling of the communications role as well as his overall leadership.

This is a welcome outcome from a mayoral term where he was severely questioned over a series of so-called scandals by the local newspaper, helping to push his popularity to such levels that old-time socialist Jim Anderton looked like a shoo-in. No longer, I hope.

The reconstruction will also bring welcome respite to a depressed construction and roading industry in Canterbury.The main fear is that authorities will over-react and lack confidence in people's resilience.

Businesses, schools and other community services may be delayed from re-opening for too long, as officials use their powers to frustrate people's own assessments of risk and self-sufficiency.

(Fortunately, there were signs this was changing this morning, and NBR Online has stories of two owners who are taking control of events.)

Nevertheless, the extra jobs and spending – which will come largely from the Earthquake Commission and insurance companies – will boost the local economy. It is a reminder to all that when economic growth flags, everyone suffers.

Sometimes it takes a disaster like an earthquake to relearn that lesson.