Analysts expect go-go Sky TV result
Big profit jump expected tomorrow, wiht iSky, World Cup seen driving further growth in the second half.
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Sky TV interim report (six months to Dec/1H 11). Analyst estimates
Rob Mercer, Forsyth Barr (rating: BUY)
Net profit: $60.1m (+18% vs 1H 10)
Ebitda: $161.5m (+11%)
Revenue: 398.5m (+8%)
Dividend: 9cps (1H 10: 7 cents)
Tristan Joll, Goldman Sachs (rating: BUY)
Net profit: $59m (+17%)
Ebitda: $160m (+11%)
Revenues: +7% to $394m
Dividend: 8cps
Analysts are expecting a strong interim result when Sky TV reports tomorrow, and see a rosy second-half.
Forsyth Barr’s Rob Mercer sees net profit, before abnormals, up 18% to $60 million.
He picks the dividend will rise to 9 cents per share from the year-ago 13 cents.
Mr Mercer anticipates “sluggish” subscriber growth will be reported for the six months to December (up 7500 to 810,000).
But looking ahead, he sees potential for the iSky service to re-ignite growth, helping to drive a net gain of 30,000+ customers per annum.
iSky launched January 19, and allows Sky TV subscribers to download content on-demand via a broadband DSL connection.
Bar some pay-per-view movies, iSky is available at no extra charge, but the widest selection of broadband content is only available to multi-room subscribers.
Mr Mercer reckons this will help reverse a surprise fall in multi-room subscriptions, which fell from 41% to 29% of My Sky subscribers in the first half of 2010.
Later this year, the rugby, cricket and netball world cups, and the new format Super 15, should also help lift subscriber growth.
Goldman Sach’s Tristan Joll also sees modest growth in total subscriber numbers, but a lift of around 4% in arpu (average revenue per user) as numbers on My Sky growing by around 29,000.
RWC tailwind
Deutsche Bank's Geoff Zame sees a "tailwind" from the Rugby World Cup and, like others, more cash being returned to shareholders.
Mr Zame has raised his 12-month price target from $5.50 to $5.54.
Chris Keall
Thu, 17 Feb 2011
Thu, 17 Feb 2011
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Analysts expect go-go Sky TV result
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