Another one bites the dust

The overthrow of Tunisia's dictator after a month of street protests is a textbook job in popular political movements that are common in many parts of the world.

But until now the Arab-Islamic world has been an exception.

The main effect of President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali’s fleeing to Saudi Arabia, the refuge for all deposed African dictators, will be to send tremors through the rest of northern Africa, such as Egypt, Algeria, Libya and Morocco, and more widely to other parts of the Middle East and Africa.

All share the characteristics of a weak or non-existent political structure, social backwardness and tightly controlled economies with the wealth and power concentrated in a military-led elite.

They also lack a strong civil middle class, democratic freedoms and the ability to create productive employment, particularly among well-educated young graduates. It was the latter who sparked food price riots a month ago in Tunisia, eventually triggering a middle-class street revolt.

A university graduate, forced to sell vegetables in the street for a living, was told this was illegal. In response he followed the example of Czech dissident Jan Palach in 1969 and set fire to himself.

Like most Islamic countries, Tunisia has widespread poverty, illiteracy and a high birthrate: more than 60% of the population is under 25.

Western news reports, particularly the BBC, have described the revolt as one against the 23-year hard-line rule of Ben Ali, 74, viewed as pro-western because of his stand against Islamic terrorism.

But his oppressive regime had no answer to rising food prices, which are endemic in Arab dictatorships. They depend on a high degree of price regulation and corruption, with business ownership concentrated in a few favoured hands.

Because of poverty and shortages, food and fuel are subsidised. So when prices rise, the reaction is often violent, though these protests usually peter out.

Not this time. Commentators have emphasised this is the first popular protest in the Arab world to have succeeded in overthrowing a government. The lack of a political class leaves the future uncertain.

Most governments in this part of the world change by “palace coups” rather than popular choice. The army remains critical but events over the past month indicate, in Tunisia at least, there is a reluctance to step up the curfews and actions that have already resulted in dozens being killed.

In the West, Tunisia, a Francophile state, was regarded as more progressive and secular than most of its neighbours because of its dependence on tourism from Europe. This was mainly concentrated in beach resorts along the Mediterranean coast that were free to defy local Islamic customs such as modest dress, a ban on alcohol and few forms public entertainment.