Hot Topic Reporting season
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Another poll has Labour below 30% (Roy Morgan)

Roy Morgan also has David Cunliffe's party in dire straits — if not quite as dire as this morning's Fairfax-Ipsos survey

Thu, 19 Jun 2014

A poll released this afternoon has more dire news for Labour, showing the party down 1% to 28% support, but it's not as dire as this morning's Fairfax-Ipsos survey, and also has National dipping.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a fall in support for National (49.5%, down 3%) but the part is still well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance (40%, up 2%).

Support for John Key’s Coalition partners has fallen slightly with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), ACT(0.5%, down 0.5%) and United Future 0% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour is down 1% to 28%, the Greens are up 3% to 12%, New Zealand First is 4% (down 0.5%) and the Mana Party 1.5% (up 1%). Mana Party alliance partners the Internet Party are at 1% (up 0.5%) – a combined 2.5% for the two parties while support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1.5% (up 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (up 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be an easy victory for the National Party and a third term for Prime Minister John Key.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is virtually unchanged – down 1pt to 139.5pts with 63.5% (down 1%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 24% (unchanged) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says: “Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (49.5%, down 3% in a fortnight) with a strong election-winning lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (40%, up 2%) despite losing some support in recent weeks, National remains near its post Budget twelve month high.

“The big news in recent weeks was the guilty verdict handed down to former National Party Cabinet Minister and recent ACT sole MP John Banks. Following the guilty verdict handed down to Banks in relation to filing a false donations declaration for the 2010 Auckland mayoral race, Banks immediately resigned from Parliament.

“The new alliance between the Mana Party (1.5%, up 1%) and Internet Party (1%, up 0.5%) has a combined support of 2.5% — the equal highest level of support for a grouping of these two parties. The next few weeks will be crucial if this party alliance is to build support heading into the election, although what is most crucial is that Mana Party Leader Hone Harawira retains his Maori seat of Te Tai Tokerau which should also see Internet Party Leader Laila Harre elected on his ‘coat-tails’.“

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone — both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 845 electors from June 2-15, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

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Another poll has Labour below 30% (Roy Morgan)