American presidential memoirs command some of the biggest book advances in history but it’s less certain the publishers get their money back.
The figures put into context the million dollars or so Dame Jacinda Ardern reportedly received for A Different Kind of Power.
It has been in the bestseller lists of several countries and is likely to be a good earner for Penguin Random House, the German-owned company that paid a whopping $US60 million ($100.5m) to the Obamas for rights to their books.
These were (and are) bestsellers. The same publisher also paid US$15m for President Bill Clinton’s 2004 memoir, My Life.
But breaking news is that former president Joe Biden has sold his forthcoming memoir for a lot less – just US$10m to Hachette Book Group, a French company. He already published one in 2017 in the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election.
At that time, he was Barack Obama’s vice-president and the book, Promise Me, Dad: A year of hope, hardship and purpose, was about his relationship with his oldest son, Beau, who died from brain cancer in 2015.
Emotional appeal
That had strong emotional appeal, while the new memoir will likely focus on his four-year administration, which has already been covered in detail by a range of authors.
Early judgments on that period would include relief in the world at large that the chaotic period of President Donald Trump 1.0 was over. The United States recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic with a booming economy, real wage growth for the first time in 50 years, and major investments in infrastructure and manufacturing.
Foreign policy returned to relative stability, with America taking a lead in Nato against the Russian invasion of Ukraine and backing for Israel after the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023. But Bob Woodward’s War (2024) also depicted an America that was almost afraid of its own shadow.
Bob Woodward. His book War depicted an America afraid of its own shadow.
The shambolic exit from Afghanistan strengthened the resolve of both Russia and China to widen their confrontation against the West, while Biden kept a tight leash on the responses of Ukraine and Israel to present a more aggressive front.
This was exacerbated by ineffectiveness on the domestic front, with inflation and debt getting out of hand, illegal immigration reaching new heights, and low approval ratings.
By mid-2022, Biden’s approval ratings had fallen from 59% after becoming president, to 37%. He was struggling to change this when Trump began his re-election campaign in 2023. Biden’s frail state of mind and health was not a public issue, but it was widely known within political circles.
Damaging account
Authors Josh Dawsey and Tyler Pager sign copies of 2024.
CNN journalist Joe Tapper, a moderator in the first election debate with Trump in June 2024, has written (with Alex Thompson) a damaging account in Original Sin: President Biden’s decline, its cover-up, and his disastrous choice to run again. They argue Biden lied about his health and his deception was abetted by the White House and Democratic Party leadership.
Another version is told in 2024: How Trump retook the White House and the Democrats lost America. This is by three Washington Post journalists, Josh Dawsey, Tyler Pager, and Isaac Arnsdorf, who covered the campaign.
Dawsey started his career at the Wall Street Journal and has returned there. Pager spent four years at the Post and is now at the New York Times. Arnsdorf remains at the Post.
Their account is typically steeped in detail-rich journalism, based on some 350 interviews, both on and off the record. They start with Biden’s first public fall, in June 2023. He had tripped over a sandbag while walking on to a stage to address an Air Force Academy graduation event in Colorado Springs.
From then on, White House officials worked on ways to ease his entry and exit from stages, shortened the steps up to Air Force One, and made him wear sneakers. Other measures included fewer evening functions while on trips.
Biden was in no shape to face a reinvigorated Trump, who had burned off the field of other nominees for the Republican candidacy. Despite the fallout from the January 6, 2021, riot on Capitol Hill and several legal suits, focus groups by Trump’s rivals showed they had no way to dent his reputation.
President Joe Biden tripped over a sandbag on June 1, 2023.
Voter affinity
“One allied effort found that voters’ affinity for Trump was so strong they would contradict their own stated opinions to justify supporting him: Voters might agree with the opposite in the abstract but, when the moderators identified Trump with the opposite positions, those same voters would switch sides to realign with him,” the authors observe.
This was to remain the case for the rest of campaign. Trump could effectively say anything about everything, without upsetting his polling, while Biden’s equivocations only made things worse. It didn’t help that Hunter Biden, the younger son, had deep legal issues as well as a background in drug addiction.
(This week it was reported that Hunter Biden went on a foul-mouthed podcast rant that attacked the Democratic Party establishment and ended any hopes of the Bidens staying out of the public eye: those attacked included the CNN journalist Tapper, Hollywood actor George Clooney, and others who are now trying to rally the forces against Trump.)
In July 2024, Joe Biden had some respite from those wanting him to stand aside from seeking re-election. This was after the attempted assassination of Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. But the polls showed no change in Biden’s unpopularity, while those for Trump rose.
Four days later, pollsters delivered this verdict to the Biden camp: “The president has no path to victory.”
Once Biden gave in to the inevitable, the focus turned to Kamala Harris, the vice-president and presumptive candidate for the presidency. It was only months before the election in November, and the main task was to ensure her nomination was not challenged.
But 2024’s authors say many, including Obama, thought other candidates would stand a better chance against Trump. Meanwhile, the attempt on his life had changed Trump. He looked more kindly on the Christian beliefs of his main aide (and now chief of staff) Susie Wiles.
A defiant Donald Trump immediately after an assassination attempt at Butler, Pennsylvania.
Trump’s depression
But he was “sullen and furious” that, having spent US$100m to take out Biden, he had to start all over again to fight another candidate. During this period, Trump’s depression upset and offended some key donors and Republican governors.
Harris overlooked some serious talent before selecting the ‘folksy’ Tim Walz, the Minnesota governor, as running mate. Again, voters’ Trump ‘amnesia’ cut in, with the polls showing they only had rosy memories from his earlier administration rather than the insults, impeachments, firings, and fights.
Harris had hoped to needle Trump into displaying the most disliked parts of his personality in the September 10 presidential debate, but she was disappointed. A further assassination attempt, foiled at a golf course, enhanced Trump’s reputation as a survivor.
His opponent has raised US$1 billion for her campaign, which finished $US1m in debt. The authors say she lost because she “underestimated the public’s anger toward Biden”, and her unwillingness to separate herself from him, in part because he pressured her not to.
Kamala Harris hoped to needle Donald Trump in the 2024 campaign.
Trump had seized the centre ground on trade and foreign affairs, as well as contentious issues such as abortion and transgender participation in sports, leaving the Democrats floundering despite their strong macro-economic performance on all but the cost of living.
This is an even-handed and factual record of events that lacks the need for justification or retribution required in a memoir. It will not be the last word on the Biden era. But it is a valuable contribution to understanding what happened in the the past, with plenty of pointers to the turbulent future of Trump 2.0.
2024: How Trump retook the White House and the Democrats lost America, by Josh Dawsey, Tyler Pager and Isaac Arnsdorf (Hutchinson/Heinemann, Penguin Random House).
Nevil Gibson is a former editor at large for NBR. He has contributed film and book reviews to various publications.
This is supplied content and not paid for by NBR.
