Brexit: 'Remain' campaigners pin hopes on Scottish veto, petition

'Remain' campaigners are pinning their hopes on a number of developments. Are they clutching at straws?

1) A Scottish veto
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has told the BBC that the members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) could try to block the UK's exit from the EU.

As has been widely noted by everyone (bar a confused Donald Trump), 62% of Scots voted to stay in the EU.

2) The petition
A lightly-policed online petition demanding a second referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union has reached three million signatures.

It calls on the government to annul Friday's result if the Remain or Leave vote in its proposed second referendum is less than 60% from a turnout of less than 75% (in the referendum just held, 51.9% voted for Leave. Turnout was 71%).

It has now reached over three million signatures in rapid time.

That's impressive but not as impressive as Friday's numbers: 33.6 million voted with 17.4 million choosing Leave.

Any petition that collects more than 100,000 signatures can force a debate in Parliament. Organisers can already claim that victory but that's the limit of a petition's constitutional powers.

3) The referendum is not legally binding. 
All-comers agree  the referendum result is not legally binding.

The Conservative-led government would be within its rights to simply ignore the result.

The key problem here is "Remain" advocate David Cameron is quitting as Prime Minister. The odds-on favourite to replace him, Boris Johnson, is a leader of the "Leave" faction.

Although only 130 of 330 Conservative MPs came out in favour of Brexit, Mr Johnson's successful "Leave" campaign has shown he has strong grassroots appeal. Electing him leader could give the party a good shot at expanding its support base and carrying the next election (especially if it comes before a Brexit-induced recession). A pro-Remain leader, on the other hand, could risk accusations of undermining democracy and face an electoral bloodbath if they ignore the referendum result, which would be the exact opposite of calls to take heed of the rising tide of opinion against globalisation.

A qualifier: if the UK economy is thrown into crisis, a "Remain" leader would be on firmer ground to question the referendum, or maybe decide to take heed of that petition ...

Recession in the UK (for what it's worth, seen as likely by most economists) would also make it harder Donald Trump, Winston Peters or any other populist politician to make hay from the referendum result.

Meantime, Boris Johnson has confounded his critics (and quite probably many of his supporters) with an op-ed in The Telegraph in which he calls for a new relationship with the EU based on free trade and the free movement of people. It sounds a lot like the old relationship.