Clinton regains lead with post-convention bounce

Donald Trump's brief lead in US presidential race polls seems to have evaporated. 

A Reuters/Ipsos poll taken over the four-day Democratic Convention finds Hillary Clinton ahead of the Republican nominee 40% to 35%.

Putting Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and the Greens' Jill Stein into the mix, Reuters/Ipsos finds a tie with Clinton 37, Trump 37, Johnson 5 and Stein 1. 

Mr Johnson — the former Republican governor of New Mexico — seems to be drawing at least as many independents from Clinton as disaffected Republicans from Trump.

Mrs Clinton has also regained her lead in RealClearPolitics' poll-of-polls overall, and  in the key battleground state of Ohio According to RealClear's poll averages, she leads in 11 of the 14 so-called swing states that will decide the race under the Electoral College system (and even Nate Silver's hallowed Five Thirty Eight modelling, which puts Trump ahead in Ohio and Florida, still has Clinton ahead overall. On Tuesday, Five Thirty Eight briefly had Trump ahead overall; Siver's predictions are uipdated every few hours).

Bigger bounce to come
The Clinton camp will be hoping for more of a post-convention bounce from coming polls. The Democrat pow-wow began on a rough note with Senator Bernie Sanders being booed by his own supporters for endorsing Clinton, and jeering continued on the floor into day two. But things picked up from there with strong speeches by President Obama, Vice President Biden, running mate Tim Kaine (who proved an effect attack dog) and Bill Clinton. And there were emotional scenes — and wall-to-wall positive media coverage —  candidate herself become the first female nominee for a major party.

The only stumble was a TPP gaffe by a senior Democrat, but it was quickly forgotten in the news cycle (though it will likely have the major real-world effect of killing the trade deal's chances of ever coming into effect. Never mind. Moving on).

Putin's dupe?
At the same time, Trump has struggled to explain his comment inviting Russia to locate 30,000 missing emails from Hillary Clinton's time as secretary of state.

The Republican candidate now says he was making a sarcastic quip, but US networks have replayed scenes from the press conference concerned where he was questioned about the comment twice and stood by it both times in non-sarcastic tones. 

The hacking quip was not a campaign killer for Trump, but it was useful for his rival given it puts the Republican on the back-foot on an issue (Clinton's use of a private email server) where he should be demolishing the Democrat.

The FBI opening an investigation, plus speculation over how the Obama administration should retaliate, will keep the Trump hacking comment story alive.

International security expert Paul Buchanan earlier noted it has also re-focused attention on Mr Trump's various attempts to solicit investments from Russia after the four-times bankrupt was shunned by major banks in the US, and two of his top advisors' connections with controversial Russian connections*. Trump's refusal to release his tax return has fanned suspicions it would reveal unfavourable business ties.

Mr Putin's repeated praise for Russian President Vladimir Putin has also put him (yet again) offside with the Republican establishment whose logistical support he so badly needs in those battleground states.

Speaker Paul Ryan — the highest-ranked elected Republican — responded to a request for comment by saying, "Russia is a global menace led by a devious thug. Putin should stay out of this election.”

It also raised new doubts about Mr Trump's habit of making it up as he goes along.

After the candidate's initial comment inviting Russia to locate the missing emails, Dr Buchanan told NBR:

"I think he was, as usual, talking off the cuff and extemporaneously in order to divert attention away from serious questions about his relationship with Russia. He was irritated by the questioning and appears to have just thrown that remark in there without thinking about its implications. In that same presser, he refused to call on Putin to stop the cyber spying and again said that Putin was a better leader than Obama.

"This is more evidence that he is temperamentally unsuited for the presidency. He often speaks impulsively and without considering the impact of his words. He also appears to not have any idea of the seriousness of the issue of cyber espionage. It is as if it is all a game for him, in which he just tries to score political points regardless of subject or the impact of his remarks outside of the room in which he made them.

"His minders have tried to walk back his comments on Twitter and in subsequent interviews but this just raises more questions about his ties to Russia."

Dr Buchanan says lingering Cold War hostility to Russia, and Republican establishment hostility to Putin, mean the Democrats can make hay from labeling Trump as "Putin's puppet".

On the negative side (for Clinton), Wikileaks is threating to release more more of her email as part of its "Hillary Leaks" series.

Dr Buchanan says Julian Assange's organisation should think twice.

“Wikileaks needs to think of its position because it's clearly being used as a pawn in a larger game here. It's very clear they've been manipulated,” he says.

* As the Washington Post reports, Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort has done multimillion-dollar business deals with pro-Russian oligarchs and was a longtime adviser to the Russia-aligned Ukrainian president whose 2014 ouster triggered Russia’s intervention in Ukraine.

The paper also says an adviser who helped run Mr Trump’s efforts in the New York primary, Michael Caputo, lived in Russia in the 1990s. Caputo also had a contract for several months in 2000 with the Russian conglomerate Gazprom Media to improve President Putin’s image in the US.