Conservatives surge toward 5% in latest 3News-Reid Research poll

The latest 3News-Reid Research poll has Colin Craig's Conservative Party at 4.7%, a whisker away from the 5% MMP threshold (a Curiablog poll-of-polls has the party on an average 3.4%).

The major parties are almost unchanged, with National up 0.3 to 46.7% and Labour up 0.2 to 26.1%.

Assuming ACT and UnitedFuture held their single electorate each, the right wing bloc would have 61 seats, leaving National dependent on NZ First or the Maori Party to create a majority.

On Sunday, Mr Craig softened one of his key policies — making binding referenda a bottom line — by suggesting a financial veto element could come into play.

NZ First remains (5.9%) remains safely over the MMP threshold by 3News-Reid Research's count.

Big-spending Internet-Mana is stalled on 1.7%, putting pressure on Mana leader Hone Harawira to hold his Te Tai Tokerau seat, where he faces a strong challenge from Labour's Kelvin Davis, and for Internet Party founder Kim Dotcom to deliver the goods at his "Moment of Truth" event Monday.

The final 3News-Reid Research poll before the 2011 election had National on 50.8%. The party received 47.3% of the actual vote on election day.

Labour was pegged at 26.0% 3News' final 2011 poll. The party received 27.5% of the vote on election day.

NZ First support was put at 3.1%.  It's election day total was 6.6%.

Curiablog 3News-Reid Research poll sumary

Party Support

National 46.7% (+0.3%)
Labour 26.1% (+0.2%)
Green 13.0% (+0.4%)
ACT 0.3% (-0.3%)
Maori 1.3%  (-0.7%)
United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
Mana/Internet 1.7% (nc)
NZ First 5.9% (+0.1%)
Conservative 4.7% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

National 59
Labour 33
Green 17
ACT 1
Maori 3
United Future 1
Mana/Internet 2
NZ First 7
Total 123
This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/123 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
CL – Labour 33 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 2 = 52/123 – ten fewer than minimum needed to govern
C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/123
On this poll, the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National could govern with NZ First or with the Maori Party (and ACT/UF). Labour could only govern with the Greens, Internet Mana, NZ First and the Maori Party.

Preferred PM

John Key 45.3% (+0.2%)
David Cunliffe 12.3% (+0.9%)

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds: Not listed

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Dates: 01 to 08 September 2014