Debate performance fails to lift Goff, Labour
Opposition leader needed a knockout blow. Based on iPredict gamblers' punts, he failed to deliver.
Phil Goff held his own in the first leaders' debate last night and by some accounts even scored a narrow points victory.
That's bad news for Labour. Trailing so far behind in the polls, he needed a knockout victory.
Accordingly, punters on iPredict were little moved by the televised stoush, with only the slightest of leans in the Labour leader's direction.
The chances of there being a National prime minister after election day bounced around after the TV One debate in heavy iPredict trading, but continued the general slide from around the 94% mark three weeks ago to around 90%.
The chances of there being a Labour prime minister also recorded movement on lighter volumes, but confirmed the trend of rising to around a 9% or 10% probability of Mr Goff forming the next Government.
The party vote share remained around the 46% mark for National and the 31% mark for Labour - confirming that the race has tightened, a little, since the first week of October, according to iPredict punter's betting inclinations.
NBR staff
Tue, 01 Nov 2011
Tue, 01 Nov 2011
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