Economists lower growth forecasts, quake blamed
Economists have lowered their forecasts for growth through to next March, following last month's devastating earthquake in Christchurch.
Economists have lowered their forecasts for growth through to next March, following last month's devastating earthquake in Christchurch.
Consensus forecasts compiled by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) now put economic growth at 0.8 percent for the year to March 2011, down from the 2.1 percent for the year that had been expected three months ago.
For the year to March 2012 the expectation in the latest consensus forecasts report, published today, is for 2 percent annual growth, compared to the 3.5 percent expected in the December report.
In contrast, stronger growth is expected in the year to March 2013, with the consensus being for annual growth of 3.9 percent, compared to the 2.6 percent that had been expected in December.
Revisions during the past quarter reflected weakening activity in the near term and a delay to reconstruction in Canterbury, NZIER said.
The bulk of the estimated reconstruction activity in Canterbury had been pushed back to the March 2013 year.
"Given the full extent of the rebuilding is still unknown, views diverge significantly on the size and timing of reconstruction in the region."
Gradual rises in real wages had been forecast, with upcoming wage negotiations expected to ignore last year's rise in GST, as wage earners had been compensated by personal tax cuts.
NZPA and NBR staff
Mon, 21 Mar 2011
Mon, 21 Mar 2011
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Economists lower growth forecasts, quake blamed
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