Finance Minister Bill English set out the stark facts of New Zealand's economic situation at the National Party's annual conference today.
He told about 600 delegates that recovery from the recession was on track, but it was patchy and did not have a broad base.
Debt would grow from about $170 billion now to about $250 billion by 2014 -- and it was not going to be easy to borrow.
"New Zealand has a big appetite for debt, and the world is hostile to debt," he said.
"It is increasingly reluctant to feed that appetite."
Mr English said new jobs created since 2002 had been brought about mainly by increased government spending and the housing boom, and his last budget had been designed to turn that around and generate economic growth which would create jobs and stability.
Mr English said debt levels were comparable with countries like Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal, which were among the worst in the world.
New Zealand was better off then they were because of its stronger financial system, but it had to improve and would do so under present policies in five years.
He said exports and tourism were starting to turn around and New Zealand was hooked to the fastest economic train in the world - China and Australia.
The first session of the conference, which ends tomorrow, dealt exclusively with the economy.
In brief opening remarks, Prime Minister John Key said the Government was popular now but had to remember that could change quickly if it took its eye off the ball.
Mr Key will make his main speech to the conference tomorrow.