ETS skeptic Groser, Adams, Bridges seen as winners in cabinet reshuffle
Groser seen as less support of the ETS than his predecessor, Nick Smith.
UPDATE 2pm: John Key has now announced the cabinet reshuffle, confirming the changes tipped below.
11am: NBR has learned from a Beehive insider that fourth iPredict contracts correctly predict the cabinet reshuffle due to be announced by Prime Minister John Key later this afternoon.
The contracts in question - all of which appear to have enjoyed an "insider trading" bump today - hold that:
- Tim Groser will gain the Climate Change portfolio; Mr Groser is believed to be less supportive of the emissions trading scheme (ETS) than his predecessor Nick Smith. As Climate Change Negotiations Minister, he is more aware than most that the while Kyoto system, on which the ETS is based, is likely to collapse at the end of this year. His record is of favouring more direct initiatives on the matter, such as the Global Research Alliance on agriculture that he set up, which has been the only real outcome from recent UN climate change summits and now boasts more than 30 countries as members.
- Amy Adams will become Environment Minister;
- Tauranga MP Simon Bridges (35) will be promoted to join cabinet;
- The fourth contract on the political marketplace predicts that Napier MP Chris Tremain will be promoted from outside cabinet to inside cabinet to fill the gap left by Nick Smith’s resignation.
NBR understands the predictions can be taken to the bank.
In the immediate wake of Nick Smith's resignation, Mr Key appointed Craig Foss acting Climate Change Minister, and Chris Findlayson acting Environment Minister.
Owned by the University of Victoria's commercialsation arm, VicLink, iPredict has close to 6000 members who place real-money bets on the outcomes of various contracts. It claims to have predicted the result of last year's general election more closely than any opinion poll.
Chris Keall
Mon, 02 Apr 2012
Mon, 02 Apr 2012
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ETS skeptic Groser, Adams, Bridges seen as winners in cabinet reshuffle
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