Flavell could replace Sharples as minister outside cabinet - iPredict

The probability the Maori Party will have at least one minister (in or outside cabinet) in the new government has fallen below 90%, but is still 89.4% according to iPredict.

Stocks on the prediction company's website show ACT and UnitedFuture continue to have more than 90% probability of having at least one minister (in or outside cabinet) in the new National-led government.

The Green Party has just a 2.5% probability of having a minister (in or outside cabinet) in the new government.  

Te Ururoa Flavell (69% probability) is now expected to become a minister outside cabinet, instead of Dr Pita Sharples, who is down to 11% probability compared with 92% yesterday.

iPredict's stocks on the new cabinet and ministers outside cabinet are fairly stable and the shape of the new government is emerging as follows:

THE CABINET (by probability and with portfolios as indicated by iPredict, and with probability)
100% John Key
100% Bill English: Finance (98%)
100% Gerry Brownlee: Canterbury Earthquake Recovery (55%)
100% Murray McCully
100% Tony Ryall: SOEs (30%)
100% Tim Groser: Trade (98%)
98% Steven Joyce: Associate Finance (78%); Economic Development (65%)
98% Christopher Finlayson
98% Paula Bennett
98% Judith Collins: Justice (80%); Commerce (47%)
98% Hekia Parata: Education (82%); Energy & Resources (65%)
95% Jonathan Coleman
94% Nick Smith: Environment (81%); Climate Change (60%)
94% Anne Tolley
93% Amy Adams
93% Craig Foss: Local Government (30%)
89% Kate Wilkinson
89% Phil Heatley: Fisheries (95%)
89% Nathan Guy
88% David Carter: Agriculture (86%)

MINISTERS OUTSIDE CABINET (by probability and with portfolios as indicated by iPredict, and with probability)
97% Peter Dunne
83% Tariana Turia
79% Simon Bridges
74% Maurice Williamson: Land Information (70%)
69% Te Ururoa Flavell
63% Chris Tremain
63% John Banks

The ACC portfolio appears to be up for grabs, with only a 7.4% probability it will be retained by Nick Smith, a 26% probability it will be awarded to Hekia Parata and a 50% probability it will be awarded to "other".

Jonathan Coleman looks set to lose Immigration, with just a 3.7% probability he will retain it, but his replacement is unknown. Amy Adams has a 30% chance of being awarded the portfolio, but "other" has a 31% probability.