GCSB Bill is dead - Edwards

Today there will be a media circus over Kim Dotcom's first face-to-face meeting with John Key at around 5pm today.

LATEST: Banks asks for guiding principles in GCSB Bill; Dunne says oversight panel not enough

The giant German will is deliver his submission on the GCSB Bill to the Intelligence and Security Select Committee, chaired by the Prime Minister.

It will be entertaining, and a good chance for Dotcom to go to his greatest hits. And if he's not too self-centred or clownish about it, maybe even make some of the general public aware of the issues around the Government Communications Security Bureau and Related Legislation Amendment Bill.

But for political commentator Bryce Edwards, the political theatre is a sideshow.

"The GCSB Bill is dead," Dr Edwards said on TV3's Firstline this morning.

Immediately after that interview, he told NBR ONLINE, "I'm probably a bit too resolute. But that's my feeling. Both Dunne and Peters have gone quite negative on the bill."

With the Maori Party opposed to the GCSB Bill, the government needs the support of NZ First or independent MP Peter Dunne to pass the legislation.

But over the past two days, both have hardened their statements, he notes, with Winston Peters calling it a cover-up, and hinting he will make some kind of new GCSB-related revelation over the coming days.

It goes without saying that the NZ First leader always relishes being in a deciding-vote position, and will milk the situation for all it's worth.

But what's Mr Dunne's motivation to rebel?

The independent MP has always seemed relatively conservative on security, and GCSB-friendly (though NBR's press gallery correspondent Rob Hosking notes he has been angsty over the spy agency for nearly a year now). And on a pragamatic level, he sits in an electorate where National easily won the party vote. So shouldn't he be making nice and angling for a cup of tea with Mr Key?

No, that situation is trumped by the pressure Mr Dunne has faced to release his correspondance with journalist Andrea Vance, and his public instance that some exchanges should remain private.

"The events of the past few weeks have focussed Dunne’s mind on the need for a much more rigorous piece of legislation," Dr Edwards says. "It would just seem like too much of a contradiction that flies in the face of everything he's said. His attitude has been hardening."

Back to the drawing board
Like Mr Peters, the Ohariu MP will not be satisfied with a few tweaks. 

"Both Dunne and Peters will be hanging out for major changes," Dr Edwards says. 

"It could be untenable for the government to continue with the current bill. They might have to go right back to the drawing board."

A key complaint of opponents to the bill has been the unseemly rush with which it's been pushed through Parliament. They may now get more time to debate it - if not quite for the reasons anticipated. 

Beyond the chattering classes
Dr Edwards agrees with InternetNZ policy lead Susan Chalmers who writes that the GCSB Bill, and its companion legislation the Telecommunications (Interception Capability and Surveillance) Bill, have failed to generate much concern with those outside the industry.

"It's a very complex area to get your head around. It's not like the anti-nuke debates of the 1980s where it was black and white," he says. "The discussion is at an elite level. The public is not really involved."

Nevertheless, it's clear that sentiment among submitters is againt the GCSB Bill and the Telco Intercept Bill. Criticism from the likes of Telecom, Vodafone, Microsoft and Google, plus consumer lobby groups like InternetNZ and Tuanz, has seen elite support move away.

Key vs Dotcom - don't necessarily bet against the PM
Back to that Dotcom vs Key circus.

There is bound to be theatre.

Sadly, Peter Dunne is no longer on the committee since his party imploaded, erasing his leadership position. His place has been taken by National's Tony Ryall.

But ACT leader John Banks - of the $50,000 Dotcom political donation and apparently forgotten helicopter ride - is on the panel, guaranteeing some excruciating moments.

And while the general idea is for MPs on the committee to question a submission maker - not the other way around - David Shearer and Russel Norman also sit on the committee. The pair can be guaranteed to give Dotcom every opportunity to push his points home and raise issues with the PM.

"On the face of it it could be quite bad for John Key," Dr Edwards says.

"But he’s at his best in these informal situations. He’s chairing the committee. He could provide his own humour. He could come out on top."

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