UPDATED WEDNESDAY 6am: GNS scientists say the risk of a magnitude 6 to 6.9 aftershock has increased - but also that media have reported its predictions out of context. | Two sizable tremors hit Christchurch this morning, but no damage is reported.
UPDATE WEDNESDAY 7am: GNS Science says it now thinks it more like that another major aftershock will hit Christchurch.
Before Monday's 5.6 and 6.3 magnitude quakes, GNS thought there was a 23% chance of a 6 - 6.9 magnitude quake hitting Canterbury before June 15, 2012.
Now, the agency puts the odds at 30% - a figure that has to be taken seriously given aftershocks have so far occured with more frequency tan predicted (see table on the GNS Geonet website here).
However, last night, GNS cautioned that some were getting carried away with its forecasts.
The agency's blog tempered the statistics widely circulated yesterday by adding the qualifier, "figures for [the] Christchurch metropolitan area are roughly one quarter of the figures given to CERA. So 23% probability for Canterbury becomes 6% probability for Christchurch."
It further qualified its forecasts by putting Canterbury's new quake profile into context: In rough terms, it means the quake probability for Christchurch has become similar to many other parts of NZ such as Wellington, Hawke's Bay, Wanganui, and Poverty Bay where quakes are more frequent."
Two big tremors this morning
A series of minor aftershocks hit Canterbury during the night.
They were followed by a magnitude 5 quake at 6.27am, centred 10km southeast of Lyttelton at Port Levy at a depth of 6km. and a mangnitude 4.2 at 6.32am, at a depth of 5km, 10km east of Diamond Harbour (see GNS reports here). There were no immediate reports of damage.
3000 homes in the city remain without power following Monday's quakes.
UPDATE TUESDAY 5.30pm: 15,000 Christchurch residents are still without power, and 25% of the city without water.
At a press conference during his visit to the city, prime minister John Key said 75 buildings in the CBD were now in urgent need of demolition.
Mr Key also said thousands of homes would have to be abandoned, but did not say where, or give a timetable.
UPDATE TUESDAY 3.30pm: First fatality reported - An elderly Christchurch man has died in the wake of yesterday's aftershocks.
Geoff Hipkins, chief executive of aged care provider Oceania, told Radio New Zealand that the man fell during the 2.20pm quake and became unconscious.
He was seen by a doctor and seemed to recover, but died during the night.\
The man's name has not been released.
UPDATE 3.20pm: Quakes upgraded - GNS has upgraded Monday' 2.20pm aftershock from a magnitude 6 to 6.3 quake - in seismologic terms, as large as the February 22 quake that killed 181 people. However, the February 22 quake struck closer to the city center.
GNS also said the 2.20pm quake was shallower than first thought - 6km rather than 9km.
The 1pm quake has been also upgraded, from 5.5 to 5.7.
The September 4 quake was 7.1 magnitude event.
The severe aftershocks that hit Christchurch yesterday won't hold up announcements on the long-term viability of quake-hit areas, Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee said.
"I have a feeling that things are going to get back on track -- not back to normal, because we haven't been normal since September 4 -- but back on track over the next couple of days," Mr Brownlee said this morning.
The mininister added there would be quite a bit of disruption around the city but the overall recovery situation "remains the same".
Christchurch residents are anxiously waiting for decisions on which parts of the city will be safe to rebuild on, and which won't, as a result of the February 22 quake.
"I don't think this will hold us up, I think if anything in some areas it makes the decision blindingly obvious," Mr Brownlee said.
"Given the events of today, I think everyone who is part of that decision will understand the need for greater haste."
In other key developments overnight:
Several abandoned buildings in the CBD collapsed after yesterday's quakes.
The 26-storey Grand Chancellor and the Harcourts building had new damage and several significant buildings appeared to be on more of a lean.
NBR Christchurch correspondent Chris Hutching said the new damage was immediately apparant. The building (photographed yesterday) looked far worse.
A number of badly damaged buildings were flattened by yesterday's aftershocks.
One captured by Mr Hutching was the Baptist church on Kilmore St, pictured before (above) and after (below) yesterday's quakes.
The Stanmore Rd shops were among dozens of buildings "finshed off" by the aftershocks:
Mr Brownlee said he would meet engineers overnight who had been investigating the impact of the latest aftershocks.
"I think it just confirms what many people have known -- that it would be a challenge to rebuild in some of those areas, but exactly where those lines are drawn still remains a question," he said.
"Everybody is pushing for a timeline and every time I mention a possible timeline it's like hanging out bait for people and it's a little unfair."
Mr Brownlee said all he could say was "we're doing everything we can to speed the decisions".
View Aftershock rocks Christchurch in a larger map
