Goff's job safe, but only just

Labour leader Phil Goff will probably hold onto his job until this year’s general election but there’s a solid chance he’ll get rolled, according to prediction market iPredict.

The latest weekly iPredict snapshot shows the probability of Mr Goff being rolled has increased significantly from 10% last week to 42% this week.

Mr Goff has been under fire for his handling of the Darren Hughes saga and rumours are swirling about fellow Labour members plotting to have him removed as leader.

The latest snapshot also contains some good news for Prime Minister John Key, with results suggesting National could govern alone if Act leader Rodney Hide fails to win Epsom.

Based on predicted party vote and electorate results, Parliament would be as follows: National 58 MPs, Labour 40, Greens nine, Act five, the Maori Party four, United Future three and a party around Hone Harawira two, for a total of 121 MPs.

However, if Mr Hide didn’t win the seat National would have 61 MPs, Labour 42, the Greens nine, the Maori Party four, United Future three and a party around Mr Harawira two MPs, for a total of 121 MPs.

Recession fears have again eased after last week’s announcement that New Zealand had narrowly avoided a double-dip recession.

The market strongly believes that there will be negative growth in the March 2011 quarter, with just a 12% probability Statistics New Zealand will report growth above 0% for that quarter and only a 52% probability growth will be above -0.5% for the quarter.

However, the market indicated just a 22% probability the economy will be in recession in the June 2011 quarter, down from 35% last week, 40% the week before and 45% three weeks ago.

Recession expectations for the September and December 2011 quarters are also down to 14% (from 18% last week) and 12% (down from 14% last week) respectively.

Inflation expectations are slightly up compared with last week. Annual inflation is expected to be 4.6% for the March quarter, compared with 4.5% for the last three weeks.

For the June quarter, expectations are unchanged this week: annual inflation is expected to be 5.3%, steady compared with the last two weeks. Annual inflation in the September quarter is expected to be 5.0%.