iPredict: Beehive staffer most likely Boag/ACC email leaker

ACC Minister Judith Collins appears set to survive the current ACC scandal at least for the next two months, with iPredict’s 6000 registered traders giving her just a 34% probability of being sacked or resigning before 1 June 2012.

Ms Collins also appears safe from being found to have leaked the critical email by former National Party president Michelle Boag, with just a 13% probability she will be found to have been the culprit for the leak.  The most likely leaker, according to iPredict traders, is “a Beehive staffer” (55% probability) followed by “an ACC official (excluding Chairman John Judge or Deputy Chairman John McCliskie)” on 42% probability.  There is only a 10% probability Ms Boag will be found to have been involved.

Despite this, Ms Collins’ defamation action against Radio New Zealand and Labour MPs Trevor Mallard and Andrew Little, after they made comments she believes connected her to the leak, appears unlikely to succeed.  There is just a 12% probability the courts will award Ms Collins damages on the matter within the next five years.  Meanwhile, there is just a 10% probability Ms Collins will extend her litigation to the left-leaning blog www.the.standard.org.nz.

As the scandal continues, iPredict traders suggest a 79% probability the New Zealand Police will formally announce an investigation into the scandal before 1 October, while a new stock has been launched asking whether or not Prime Minister John Key will order a public inquiry into the matter, as he comes underincreasing pressure to do so.

Former ACC Minister Nick Smith, who resigned from Cabinet over his role in matters related to the early part of the scandal, is not likely to face any further sanction.  There is just a 31% probability that the Prime Minister, Auditor General, Ms Collins, or another person of official governmental authority will announce aformal independent inquiry into his conduct as ACC Minister and a 34% probability he will be re-appointed as a minister before the end of the year.   

So far, the scandal appears not to be affected the Government’s probability of being re-elected.  Early, low-volume trading on stocks forecasting the results of the next TVNZ poll, expected as soon as tomorrow, suggests National will have 48% support, Labour 30%, the Greens 12.5%, and NZ First 5.1%.  

Forecasts of the actual election result are also largely unaffected.  The probability the next election will be held in 2014 has remained broadly steady at 91% through the scandal, as has National’s forecast party vote of 42.1% and the probability there will be a National Prime Minister after the next election of 45%. Labour has a 55% probability of winning the next election.

The probability Mr Key will depart as Leader of the National Party in 2012 has fallen to 9%, as has the probability he will depart in 2013, also to 9%.  However the probability he will depart in 2014 has moved up to 39%.

Ms Collins’ prospects of replacing Mr Key have plunged.  Having previously sat around the 40% mark, the probability she will be the next National Party leader is now just 17%.  Should there be a vacancy, the two leading contenders are now Steven Joyce and Hekia Parata with 19% probability each.