iPredict picks Green slump scuttling chances of Labour-led coalition

The 7000 registered punters on Victoria University's political marketplace iPredict are picking a slump in the Green’s party vote (10.8% versus last week’s 12.8%) that would scuttle the chance of a Labour-led government after the 20 September election, even though Labour makes some party vote gains as a result (29.8% from 28.5% last week). National is expected to reap 45.3% of the party vote, a 1.8% improvement over last week.

That means a National/NZ First coalition is currently the only feasible government, though National would have other options should the Maori or Conservative parties win an electorate.

Five of the minor parties have lost ground in expected party votes: NZ First is polling at 5.1% (down from 5.6%); the Conservative Party, 3.6% (3.9%); Act, 1.8% (2.0%); UnitedFuture, 0.4% (0.5%); and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party,  0.2% (0.3%).   Meanwhile, the Internet Mana alliance enjoyed a bump from last week’s 1.9% to 2.2% and the Maori Party is holding steady at 0.9%.

Party vote turnout is expected to be 74.1% (down from 74.7% last week), and all part leaders with the exception of  Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia are given a 95% probability or better to keep their roles until nomination day.

Meanwhile, Act’s chances of winning at least one electorate seat have increased to 84% (from 82% last week), with its expected electorate representation almost up to an entire MP (0.9 MPs versus last week’s 0.8 MPs).  Act candidate David Seymour is given 85% probability of winning Epsom (up from 80% last week).

The likelihood of the Conservative Party winning at least one seat is holding steady at 35%; expected electorate representation is also steady on 0.4 MPs, as is leader Colin Craig’s probability of winning in East Coast Bays against Murray McCully (just 33%).

The probability of UnitedFuture winning at least one seat is now 83% (up from 79% last week) and its expected electorate MP headcount remains 0.8 MPs.  Leader Peter Dunne’s probability of winning Ohariu electorate is 82% (up from 80%).

In the Maori electorates, Mana has an 83% probability of winning at least one seat (down 2% from last week) and its expected electorate representation remains 1.2 electorate MPs.  The Maori Party is still in trouble, though it’s showing signs of improvement: its 48% probability of winning an electorate is up 3% from last week; its expected electorate representation is now 0.7 MPs, versus last week’s 0.6 MPs.   

Mana leader Hone Harawira’s probability of winning Te Tai Tokerau has slipped from 83% to 82%.  Annette Sykes, Mana’s Waiariki candidate, is up to 43% probability of winning the electorate (from 40% last week and 25% the week before)., although Maori Party Leader Te Ururoa Flavell is given a 48% probability of winning that seat (43% last week).  Labour is overwhelmingly favoured to win Te Tai Hauauru and has a 65% probability of winning Tamaki-Makaurau

The Greens and NZ First still aren’t expected to win any electorate seats.

The three most marginal seats, excluding those mentioned above, are Palmerston North, Port Hills and Waimakariri.

National’s Jono Naylor and Labour’s Ian Lees-Galloway are neck and neck to win Palmerston North, with 50% each.

Labour’s Ruth Dyson now has a 59% probability of holding on to her Port Hills seat (up 4% from last week) in her contest with National’s Nuk Korako.

National’s Matthew Doocey has a 62% probability of beating Labour’s Clayton Cosgrove in In Waimakariri, a 7% improvement over last week.

Based on the party-vote and electorate forecasts above, Parliament would consist of: 57 National MPs (up from 55 last week), 37 Labour MPs (up from 36), 14 Green MPs (down from 16), 6 NZ First MPs (down from 7), 2 Act MPs (down from 3), 3 Internet-Mana MPs (up from 2) and 1 UnitedFuture MP (steady).  Assuming the Maori Party did not win Waiariki, it would have no MPs (steady).  Parliament would have 120 MPs, with a government requiring the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply.

Under this scenario, National, Act and UnitedFuture couldn’t govern, with only 60 seats between them. National could govern with the support of NZ First with whom it would hold 63 seats. The Green’s fall means Labour would not be able to form a government as even with the Greens, Internet-Mana and NZFirst the bloc would only have  60 seats.

Were the Maori Party to win Waiariki but the Conservative Party to miss out on East Coast Bays, Parliament would be the same except that the Greens would have only 13 MPs and the Maori Party 1 MP.  This means a National/Act/UnitedFuture/Maori Party government could be formed, with 61MPs, or a National/NZ First government with 63 MPs.

Given speculation National may negotiate with the Conservative Party over an electorate accommodation, iPredict has a projection based on party vote and electorate forecasts, but with the addition of the Conservative Party and Maori Party both winning electorates.  Under that scenario, Parliament would consist of: 55 National MPs, 36 Labour  MPs, 13 Greens MPs, 6 NZ First MPs, 4 Conservatives MPs, 2 Act MPs, 3 Internet-Mana MPs, 1 UnitedFuture MP and the 1 Maori Party MP.  Parliament would have 121 MPs and a government would be required to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and support.  National would be able to govern with the support of both the Conservative and Act parties or with NZ First.

iPredict has a bundle of stocks forecasting NZ First’s decision-making should it hold the balance of power. There’s a 49% probability Mr Peters would support a National-led government (down from 50% last week) and a 2% probability he would give confidence and supply to neither National nor Labour (steady), which would favour the larger, National-led bloc.  The probability Mr Peters would support a Labour-led Government  holds steady at 47%.

Overall, National now has an 80% probability of leading the next government, up from 78% last week.

Post-election, David Cunliffe’s prospects of remaining Labour leader continue to be grim with a 52% probability he will be depart by the end of 2014 (up from 51% last week), 88% by the end of 2015 (steady), 92% by the end of 2016 (steady) and 99% by the end of 2017 (steady).

Grant Robertson continues to be strongly favoured as the next Labour leader at 65% (down from 70% last week).  David Parker is in second-place on 19% probability (up from 5% last week), followed by Jacinda Ardern on 8% (down from 9%).

John Key’s grip on National’s leadership has strengthened, with a 38% probability of departing by the end of 2015 (down from 41% last week), a 59% probability of departing by the end of 2016 (down from 62%), and an 80% probability he will depart by the end of 2017 (down from 81%).

Steven Joyce remains favoured to succeed Mr Key as National Party leader, with 45% probability (steady ), followed by Judith Collins on 17% (steady), and Simon Bridges, Paula Bennett and Bill English, all on 7%. 

Labour’s chances of winning the 2017 election remain 52% (steady compared with last week).