New Zealand could be left with a hung parliament next year if the Maori Party decides not to support a National/Act government, a weekly snapshot from predictions market iPredict suggests.The website takes snapshots at random times each week to avoid mark
New Zealand could be left with a hung parliament next year if the Maori Party decides not to support a National/Act government, a weekly snapshot from predictions market iPredict suggests.
The website takes snapshots at random times each week to avoid market manipulation by political parties.
This week’s snapshot forecasts that John Key will still be New Zealand’s prime minister after the next election.
However, the electorate vote in a few key seats could have a major effect on the result.
National is forecast to get 45.0% of the vote, Labour 35.4%, the Greens 7.6%, New Zealand First 3.9%, the Maori Party 3.4%, Act 2.3% and United Future 1.0%.
But United Party leader Peter Dunne is forecast to lose his Ohariu seat to National, while New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is not forecast to win a seat in Parliament either.
Act Party leader Rodney Hide is, however, predicted to retain his seat in Epsom, and the Maori Party is forecast to win six out of the seven Maori seats.
If this scenario plays out it would leave National with 58 MPs, Labour 45, the Greens 10, the Maori Party six and Act three.
With 122 MPs, a government would require the support of 62 MPs and an Act/National coalition would only have 61.
This would leave the Maori Party not so much kingmaker but hangmaker, unable to help form an alternative government but able to send New Zealand back to the polling booths.
The market is confident this won’t happen, forecasting a 79% chance there will be a National Prime Minister after the election.
However, if Labour retains the Ikaroa-Rawhiti seat, currently held by Parekura Horomia, Parliament will only have 121 MPs due to the reduced overhang from the Maori Party only having five MPs instead of six.
This would allow National and Act to govern alone without requiring the support of the Maori Party.
The market is also predicting a 79% chance that the general election will be held in the fourth quarter of 2011, with a 19% probability of an early election in the third quarter and a 2% probability of an early election in the second quarter.
