iPredict suggests Rena response hurting government
Electronic tipping service sees 4% fall in support for National over past week, with Labour and Green parties gaining at the government's expense.
Criticism of the government’s response to unfolding Rena disaster off Tauranga’s coast may cost the National Party 4% at the general election.
Recent movements on iPredict have National’s forecast party vote down from to 46% from 50%, with the Green and Labour parties the main benefactors.
Market movements on the electronic punting service have seen forecasts for Labour’s party vote increase from 28.5% to 21% in the past week and the Greens are now tipped to garner 11.1%.
The likelihood of Winton Peters returning to parliament has moved from marginal to possible with New Zealand First now predicted to get 4.7% of the party vote, perilously close to the 5% threshold.
Using iPredict party vote data, a Parliament is predicted to have 58 National MPs, 39 Labour MPs, 14 Green MPs, 4 Act MPs, 3 Maori Party MPs, 2 UnitedFuture MPs and just Hone Harawira representing Mana.
This result would deny National a majority and prevent it from governing alone.
Matt Nippert
Fri, 14 Oct 2011
Fri, 14 Oct 2011
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iPredict suggests Rena response hurting government
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