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Hot Topic NBR Focus: GMO
Hot Topic NBR Focus: GMO
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Is Pita Sharples on the way out?


iPredict users forecast Shane Jones to take the Maori Party co-leader's seat, leaving the party with only two MPs.

Niko Kloeten
Fri, 26 Aug 2011

Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples could be ousted from Parliament at this year’s election, users of prediction website iPredict have forecast.

According to this week's iPredict snapshot, Labour Party MP Shane Jones is now forecast to beat Dr Sharples for the Tamaki-Makaurau seat, with a 55% probability of winning compared to 42% for the incumbent.

As a result, the Maori Party is expected to hold just two seats, the same number of MPs as the Mana Party is forecast to secure.

Meanwhile the Green Party is now expected to have 10 MPs after the election, up from nine last week, with a forecast 7.6% share of the party vote (up from 7.2% last week).

National is forecast to get 45.0% (steady) giving it 57 MPs out of the 120-seat Parliament, while Labour is forecast to get 32.7% (up from 32.3% last week), giving it 41 MPs.

Act is forecast to get 4.9% (up from 4.2% last week) and six MPs, while UnitedFuture (1.3%, down from 2.3% last week) is predicted to get two MPs.

New Zealand First is forecast to get 4.7% of the party vote, leaving it without any MPs as it is not predicted to win any seats. 

Niko Kloeten
Fri, 26 Aug 2011
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Is Pita Sharples on the way out?
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