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Labour below 30% in latest Roy Morgan poll, Nats dip to 45.5%

Roy Morgan argues stronger support for the Greens and New Zealand First.

Pattrick Smellie
Thu, 23 Apr 2015

Support for the governing National Party has fallen from its election night support level of 47 percent to 45.5 percent in the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan political opinion poll, taken after the Northland by-election, but the news is worse for Labour, whose support has slipped below 30 percent again, sliding 3.5 percentage points from a month earlier to 27.5 percent.

That said, Roy Morgan argues that stronger support for the Greens and New Zealand First - both up 2.5 percent in the latest poll to 13.5 percent and 8.5 percent respectively - would create the potential for a three-way Labour-led coalition with supporting totalling 49.5 percent to outpoll National and its current coalition partners, at a total of 48 percent support, were a general election to be held today and produce that result.

That was the first time such an outcome had been possible, based on its polls, since before the Sept. 20 general election.

The poll of 888 eligible voters was run between April 6 and 19.

A Colmar Brunton poll for Television New Zealand, taken between April 11 and 15 and broadcast last weekend, had both National and Labour holding steady at 49 percent and 31 percent respectively.

"Despite the rise in support for the Opposition on the whole, Labour's decision to advise Labour supporters to vote for NZ First Leader Winston Peters in the Northland by-election appears to have dented Labour support," said Michelle Levine, chief executive at Roy Morgan.

Polling on the government's minor party support partners showed the Maori Party falling half a percentage point to 1.5 percent support, while the Act party was unchanged at 1 percent, as was United Future, which registered zero.

For the parties outside Parliament, the Conservative Party of NZ is 1 percent, down 0.5 percent, while Mana is unchanged at zero support, while support for independents/others is up to 1.5 percent.

Roy Morgan's Government Confidence Rating fell 5.5 points to 135, with 62 percent (down 2.5 percent) of New Zealand electors saying NZ is 'heading in the right direction' compared to 27 percent, a 3 percentage point increase, saying the country is 'heading in the wrong direction'.


Pattrick Smellie
Thu, 23 Apr 2015
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Labour below 30% in latest Roy Morgan poll, Nats dip to 45.5%