Labour-Greens bloc dramatically closes gap on National in new Roy Morgan poll

A Morgan Poll released today shows a large fall in support for National (46%, down 5% - the lowest since May) now with a significantly reduced lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (42%, up 3.5%) just two months before the September 20 election.

Support for National's coalition partners has changed little overall with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), Act NZ (0.5%, unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party is 30% (up 6.5%), but the Greens are down 3% to 12%. Potential ‘king-makers’ NZ First is 5% (down 1%), the Internet-Mana Party alliance is 2.5% (up 1%). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (up 1%).

Longtime poll observers will take the result with a grain of salt (all the major polls were off-beam with their final 2011 election surveys). And it comes on the heels of a warning from Prime Minister John Key that 2011 polls overestimated National support.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 135pts (down 7.5pts) with 60% (down 5.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 25% (up 2%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. The New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence this week rose to 99.5pts (up 9.5pts).

Gary Morgan says: "Today's poll shows a definite tightening between the governing National (46%, down 5% in a fortnight) and a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (42%, up 3.5%). Crucially, Prime Minister John Key has this week ruled out doing an electorate deal with the right-wing Conservative Party led by Colin Craig in the seat of East Coast Bays, while at the same time encouraging National voters to support United Future Leader Peter Dunne in the seat of Ohariu and Act NZ candidate David Seymour in the seat of Epsom.

“In addition, Key has also floated the possibility of doing a deal with former National Party Cabinet Minister, and current New Zealand First (5%, down 1%) Leader, Winston Peters – but that Peters must state his position on a number of issues. Today’s NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows Peters may once again hold a key position in determining who the New Zealand Prime Minister is after September’s election – as long as NZ First can gain more than the threshold of 5% support nationwide.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 818 electors from July 14-27, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.

(Click to zoom)