Labour sinks to record low in Fairfax-Ipsos poll

Labour has sunk to a record low of 22.4% in the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll, while National holds steady on 52.8%, positioning it to govern alone.

The poll has to be seen in the context that Fairfax was the worst offender in the exaggerating National/under-estimating Labour trend among major polls in 2011 (when its final poll put National on 54.0% and the party got an actual vote of 47.3%; it put Labour on 26%, the party received 27.5% of the actual vote).

All polls are showing Internet Mana stalled on or under 2%, putting pressure on the party's "Moment of Truth" event today, and for Mana leader Hone Harawira to hold his Te Tai Tokerau electorate where he faces a strong challenge from Labour's Kelvin Davis (Maori TV is due to release a poll of the electorate on its Native Affairs programme tonight).

See the full Fairfax-Ipsos poll results here.

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Curiablog summary:

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 873 have a party preference

Dates: 04 September to 11 September 2014

Party Support

National 52.8% (-1.4%)
Labour 22.4% (-1.9%)
Green 13.0% (+0.1%)
NZ First 4.4% (+0.8%)
Maori 1.0% (+0.7%)
United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
ACT 0.7% (+0.5%)
Mana 1.4% (+0.1%)
Conservative 3.6% (+1.2%)

Projected Seats

National 70
Labour 29
Green 17
ACT 1
Maori 3
United Future 1
Mana 2
NZ First 0
Total 123
This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than the minimum needed to govern
CL – Labour 29 + Greens 17 + Mana 2 = 48/123 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123
On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

John Key 57.5% (-0.1%)
David Cunliffe 17.5% (nc)

Housing Policies

49% prefer National’s home start grants
38% prefer Labour’s Kiwibuild

Next National Leader

Bill English 33%
Steven Joyce 22%
Paula Bennett 11%
Simon Bridges 9%

Affordability of Spending Promises

National +42% (62% affordable, 20% unaffordable)
Labour -5%
NZ First -3%
Greens -26%
Conservatives -9%
Internet Mana -32%