Labour tied with Mana in Te Tai Tokerau

Maori TV poll (500 eligible voters; 80 fell under "don't know")

Hone Harawira (Mana): 41%
Kelvin Davis (Labour): 40%
Solomon Tipene (Maori): 15%

Breakaway Maori politician Hone Harawira would receive 41 percent of the votes if the Te Tai Tokerau by-election was held tomorrow, according to a poll released on Maori TV's Native Affairs programme.

When he stood against (then Maori Party candidate) Hone Hawarira at the 2008 election, Labour's Kelvin Davis lost by 6000 votes.

The June 25 by-election is being held because Mr Harawira resigned from Parliament after quitting the Maori Party and forming his own Mana Party.

He wants a mandate to represent Te Tai Tokerau in Parliament in his new position as leader of the Mana Party.

Mr Harawira has said he has overwhelming support in the Far North electorate but the National Party-allied Maori Party has insisted it can take the seat.

In the poll of 500 eligible voters, 41 percent said they would support Mr Harawira if the poll was tomorrow, and 40 percent said they would support the Labour Party candidate, Kelvin Davis.

Another 15 percent said they would support the Maori Party's Solomon Tipene.

Analysts have predicted that if there was a significant split of voters between the Mana Party and the Maori Party, Labour's candidate could come through the middle and pick up the seat.

The Te Tai Tokerau by-election will be contested by five candidates, but the poll released today showed only 1 percent support for each of Kelvyn Alp, representing OurNZ Party, and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party candidate Herbert Maki. Another 2 percent of voters specified other choices.

Among the 199 people who chose Mana or the Maori Party, 57 percent said they would prefer Labour as a coalition partner, and 28 percent picked National, with another 10 percent picking "neither".

To the proposal that there was no party vote available at the by-election, but a general election was held tomorrow, the poll participants said they would support the Labour Party (36 percent), Maori Party (25 percent) Mana Party (21 percent), National Party (10 percent), and Green Party (6 percent). Another 2 percent opted for NZ First, and none for the Act Party.

And told that the by-election would cost $500,000, while a general election was to be held in November, 56 percent said that the spending was not justified.

On multiple response questions, Mr Davis was the only candidate to get 50 percent endorsement as a candidate who could be trusted,while Mr Harawira was picked by 38 percent, and Mr Tipene by 20 percent. Similar ratios applied to which candidate "would be good in a crisis", but Mr Harawira was picked by 66 percent as having "lots of personality". On this, Mr Davis was rated by 26 percent, and Mr Tipene by just 9 percent.