Labour/Greens start election year with edge over National - Roy Morgan poll

The latest Roy Morgan Poll - the first of 2014 - shows a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (46%, up 1%) leading National (43.5%, down 1.5%).

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has slightly improved: Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%), United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%), ACT 0% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party has improved to 33.5% (up 3%), while the Greens have fallen to 12.5% (down 2%), New Zealand First 4% (down 1%), Mana Party 0.5% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 2.5% (up 0.5%) and Others 1% (up 0.5%).

If a general election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be too close to call and depend on minor party support.

The poll was taken January 6 - 19. That is, before respective U-turns by National and Labour as Prime Minister John Key extended an olive branch to NZ First, or Labour abandoned its no-GST-on-fruit-and-veges-and tax-free fiirst-$5000 policies and said it was pro-offshore drilling, but added new spending.

Pollster Gary Morgan says, “Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (46%, up 1%) beginning this election year with a clear lead over the governing National (43.5%, down 1.5%). The closeness of this result means minor parties will play a large role in determining who forms Government after the election.

“If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that minor parties including New Zealand First (4%, down 1%), the Conservative Party of NZ (2.5%, up 0.5%), the Maori Party (2%, up 0.5%) and the Mana Party (0.5%, down 0.5%) will determine the shape of New Zealand’s next Government.

“In addition, Internet entrepreneur Kim Dotcom has announced his intention to start a new political party, the Internet Party to contest this year’s election. Dotcom is still facing extradition to the United States in relation to his now defunct file sharing site, Megaupload. The extradition hearing is now due to take place in July 2014 – only four months before the election.”

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has jumped to 139.5pts (up 9.5pts) with 63% (up 4.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 23.5% (down 5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The poll was conducted by telephone (landline and mobile), with a NZ wide cross-section of 1,509 electors from January 6 – 19, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 4% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.