Migration: short-term RWC surge, but long-term population losses

New figures confirm the Rugby World Cup surge of tourists – but also show an upturn in long-term departures by New Zealanders.

Migration figures released this morning show net long-term migration turned down again after turning positive in August. The importance of permanent and long-term arrives is that apart from long term boosting of New Zealand’s skills base, it also has a more immediate impact on the country’s housing and construction markets.

There was a 700 net population loss, on a seasonally adjusted basis, of long term migrants: while numbers of UK (up 1000), China (up 400) and there was a net loss of 2900 long-term immigrants to Australia, the highest net loss for a September month ever.

Much of this is Christchurch-driven: although 500 hardy souls from overseas made a long-term move to Christchurch in the last month, which is only 100 down on the same period a year ago. Permanent and long-term arrivals to Christchurch number 2800 since the February earthquake.

But the departures have surged. Since the 22 February earthquake there have been 5,500 permanent and long-term departures from Christchurch.

Net migration for the year to September is in fact positive, by 800, with 84,800 permanent and long-term arrivals to New Zealand offsetting 84,000 departures.

However each month bar August has been negative since the February earthquake.

Short-term arrivals, meanwhile, have shown their anticipated Rugby World Cup related surge.

Overall RWC-related arrivals were 74,400 in September, accounting for more than a third of all tourists, Statistics New Zealand’s acting population statistic manager Deb Potter said.

“This adds 4,400 Rugby World Cup arrives in August and 1,200 in July, giving a total of 80,000 – with October results still to come.”

Australia provided more than a third of RWC visitors: 28,700. The United Kingdom was next, but much lower: 12,800. France was third, with 8,300 rugby tourists.

Somewhat surprisingly, there were more United-States rugby tourists than those from South Africa – 3,700 and 3,600 respectively.

However these figures only report country of permanent residence and do not take into account how many RWC visitors are expatriate New Zealanders who were included in previous year's permanent and long-term departure statistics.