National at record high, Labour at record low - iPredict
Gamblers on Victoria University-backed political marketplace are forecasting National's party vote to hit 50%
Gamblers on Victoria University-backed political marketplace iPredict are forecasting National's party vote to hit 50% - a new high.
Forecasts for party vote shares have National up from 49% last week. The Greens jumped to 10.3%, up from 8% the previous week.
In contrast, Labour has landed with a loss in vote shares to 28.1%, down from 30.2% last week and a record low on iPredict.
Act’s results have also declined marginally, moving down to a 2% share from 4.1% the previous week.
Those using iPredict to make bets around GDP growth have turned more pes
Members are betting growth will drop to 0.6% for the September quarter, down from 0.7% last week, 0.6% for the December quarter (steady), and 0.4% for the March 2012 quarter, which slides down from 0.6% last week.
Inflation expectations are also expected to deteriorate this week, with annual inflation expected to be 5.0% in the September quarter (steady), 2.8% in the December quarter, which is up from 2.7% last week, and 2.6% in the March 2012 quarter, up from 2.5% last week.
Current leaders of parliamentary parties have an average probability of 92% for remaining in their seats until election time. Don Brash is currently the most vulnerable of party leaders, but the market forecasting just an 8% probability he will be replaced before the election.
Brash has recently been in the spotlight regarding his radical views on cannabis decriminalisation, sparking mixed reactions not only from other party leaders, but from members of his own Act party. Brash’s recent views on the issue may be the final nail in his ‘legitimacy-coffin’ among the public and other party leaders, but only by letting the ball roll will we know for sure.
Robert McCambridge
Thu, 29 Sep 2011
Thu, 29 Sep 2011
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National at record high, Labour at record low - iPredict
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