National drops below 40% - iPredict
National would need the threshold lowered to 4% to be able to govern at the next election.
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The forecast vote for the National Party at the next election has dipped below 40% for the first time, according to traders on the iPredict website.
National is expected to get 39.7% of the vote, down from 40.6% last week.
That means National is unlikely to be in power if the threshold to enter parliament under MMP remains at 5%.
Under a 5% threshold, Labour would be more likely to form a government, with a Labour/Green/NZ First government gaining 65 seats and a National/NZ First/Maori coalition only getting 60 seats.
However, if the threshold is reduced to 4%, National could govern because the Conservatives would enter parliament with five seats.
Overall, traders give Labour a 50% chance of being in power, with National getting 49% probability.
Caleb Allison
Mon, 25 Jun 2012
Mon, 25 Jun 2012
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National drops below 40% - iPredict
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