National forecast to govern alone
National could govern alone even if New Zealand First made it back into Parliament and Act and United Future dropped out, iPredict markets suggest.
National could govern alone after the next election even if Act and United Future were booted out and New Zealand First made it back in, iPredict’s weekly online snapshot suggests.
Unemployment, growth and inflation expectations are largely unchanged from last week, while the likelihood of big petrol price rises remains high in the latest snapshot.
However, the big news is in the political stocks, with National’s continuing popularity forecast to give it the option of governing alone after the election on November 26.
National is forecast to receive a party vote share of 48.0%, up from 46.5% last week but below the result in a TV3 poll that showed support for National at 57%.
This would give National 62 seats, enough for a majority without the support of Act, United Future or the Maori Party.
If Act Party leader Rodney Hide and United Future leader Peter Dunne both lost their electorate seats and New Zealand First made the 5% threshold National would still have 62 MPs and be able to govern alone.
Mr Hide is the most vulnerable leader of a parliamentary party, with the market showing a 24% probability he will be replaced before the election, up from only 7% last week.
Meanwhile, Labour leader Phil Goff’s position appears more secure after the turbulence following the Darren Hughes saga.
The probability Mr Goff will be rolled as leader before the election has dropped to just 12%, down from 17% last week, 22% two weeks ago and 42% three weeks ago.
Niko Kloeten
Mon, 18 Apr 2011
Mon, 18 Apr 2011
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National forecast to govern alone
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