National party takes a hit on RWC wobbles
The National Party has been hit by Rugby World Cup wobbles with the forecast party vote share dropping from 48% to 46.5%, according to iPredict's latest data results.
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The National Party has been hit by Rugby World Cup wobbles with the forecast party vote share dropped from 48% to 46.5%, according to iPredict’s latest data results.
John Key’s chances for re-election for the 2011 general elections are still looking fairly high, despite a minor percentage drop in the predicted outcome for Key’s re-election dropping from 94% to 93%.
The probabilities of National beating last election’s majorities are the highest in the Tauranga region with 86%, followed by Helensville in second place with 69%, North Shore at 62%, Bay of Plenty at 50%, Rangitikei at 23% and Ilam coming last with a 21% chance of sustainability.
However, National seems to be staying well ahead of Labour’s regional percentage figures, with Labour’s chances of beating their majorities in Dunedin South at 58%, Mount Roskill at 53% and Hutt South falling behind at 30%.
With a mixed set of results partially affected by the ongoing World Cup flurry, all current leaders of parliament parties have at least a 91% probability of remaining in their positions until the 2011 general election.
NBR staff
Thu, 15 Sep 2011
Thu, 15 Sep 2011
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National party takes a hit on RWC wobbles
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