National tipped to win third term
iPredict trading gives National a 53.3% chance of retaining power in 2014.
Traders on iPredict estimate National is now more likely than Labour to win the next election.
Overnight trading pushed the ruling party’s chances of maintaining power after 2014 past 50% for the first time since the election.
Labour’s chances of being in power in 2014 are now rated at 46.7%, compared with National's 53.3%.
David Shearer’s chances of becoming the leader of the opposition strengthened overnight to stand at 72%, up from 69% yesterday.
In contracts on possible cabinet selections, Nick Smith chances of retaining ACC have slipped to zero with Jonathan Coleman (45%) the most likely replacement.
Mr Smith is now given a 72% chance of taking local government from the now-departed Rodney Hide.
Mr Coleman is now tipped to lose Broadcasting, with Craig Foss given a 60% of taking over.
Matt Nippert
Fri, 09 Dec 2011
Fri, 09 Dec 2011
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National tipped to win third term
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