National’s game of footsie increases Act’s chances in Epsom
iPredict marketplace now rates John Banks' chances of winning the crucial seat at 68.7%.
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ACT's future in Parliament looks more certain with prediction marketplace iPredict rating the chances of John Banks winning the Epsom seat at 68.7%.
The odds of ACT maintaining a parliamentary presence by winning the seat increased last week from 52.9% over the past week amidst speculation Prime Minister John Key will 'enjoy a cup of tea' with ACT candidate Mr Banks (a euphemism for endorsing him and tacitly instructing National voters to give Banks their electorate vote)
National Party candidate Paul Goldsmith’s chances of winning Epsom slumped over the same period to 28.2% from 43.4%.
With ACT polling well below 5% (iPredict estimates it will win only 3.7% of the party vote) winning an electoral seat appears crucial for their future.
National and the Green Party’s expected share of the party vote increased over the week, with the governing party now tipped to win 48.5% (up from 46.5%) and the Greens 11.3% (up from 11.1%).
Labour’s expected party vote share slumped this week to 28.5%, down from 31%.
If the iPredict results hold true, National would win 60 seats, Labour 25, Greens 13, ACT 5, the Maori Party 3, Mana 3 and United Future 1.
Such a result would allow National to govern with an agreement with any of the minor parties.
Matt Nippert
Wed, 09 Nov 2011
Wed, 09 Nov 2011
© All content copyright NBR. Do not reproduce in any form without permission, even if you have a paid subscription.
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National’s game of footsie increases Act’s chances in Epsom
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