Nats predicted to drop a seat
There was a 74% probability that official election results will see National drop to 59 MPs, the forecasting company said, down from the 60 MPs it was given on election night.
The National caucus is likely to drop an MP after special votes are counted, according to iPredict.
There was a 74% probability that official election results will see National drop to 59 MPs, the forecasting company said, down from the 60 MPs it was given on election night.
The Greens are favoured to take the extra seat, while National's Christchurch MP Aaron Gilmore would be out of a job.
If that occured, National would need the support of both Act and UnitedFuture, or the Maori Party, to pass legislation, compared with just one of these on election night.
Stocks are also being traded on which MPs will be rewarded with cabinet portfolios.
Bill English is overwhelmingly favoured to continue as Minister of Finance, with a probability of 98%, while Judith Collins is similarly favoured to become Minister of Justice, with 89% probability.
Steven Joyce is expected to remain Associate Minister of Finance, with 85% probability.
Although Gerry Brownlee is favoured to retain his Minister for Economic Development portfolio, with 60% probability, he appeared to be in a contest with Hekia Parata for his energy and resources portfolio, with just 48% probability, compared with 45% probability for Ms Parata, who has been Acting Energy and Resources Minister since Mr Brownlie took up his role as Earthquake Recovery Minister.
Anne Tolley and Jonathan Coleman are expected to lose their education and immigration portfolios, with only 20% and 21% chances respectively of keeping those jobs.
Colin Williscroft
Wed, 30 Nov 2011
Wed, 30 Nov 2011
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Nats predicted to drop a seat
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