Nats slip in latest Roy Morgan poll

National, which was bouyant in a series of post-budget polls, has slipped in support according to the latest Roy Morgan survey.

During June support for National was down 4.5% to 49.5%, the polling company finds.

However, despite the fall the National-led government has a large lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance with their support at 39% (up 3%).

If a national election were held now, the poll shows National would win and be able to govern in its own right.

Support for National supporters the Maori Party was unchanged at 1% and is unchanged for both Act NZ 1% and United Future 0%.

Support has increased for the three main opposition parties: Labour’s support is now at 26% (up 0.5%), Greens 13% (up 2.5%) and NZ First 6.5% (up 0.5%).

For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 2% (up 1%).

Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says: “National lost support in June – now at 49.5% (down 4.5%), following New Zealand’s slowest GDP growth (0.2%) in two years during the March quarter. Anticipating the growth slowdown, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates to 3.25% in June – the first cut in interest rates for more than four years since March 2011. However, despite the drop, National retains a strong lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 39% (up 3%).

“The slowdown in the New Zealand economy in recent months is evident when one looks at the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand consumer confidence rating – now 119.9 in June. Consumer confidence has now fallen in the past two months from 128.8 in April to 123.9 in May and now down to 119.9 in June (down 8.9pts – 6.9% – in the past two months). In addition, the New Zealand dollar has fallen from 77.2 US cents in late April to 68.6 US cents today – a fall of 8.6 cents (11.1%).

“However, despite the worries, there is still good news with New Zealand Government confidence  at 135.5 in June with 62.5% of New Zealand electors saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ far higher than ‘across the ditch’ in Australia where government confidence is 98.5 with only 40% of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.”

Roy Morgan surveyed 905 eligible voters in June 2015. Of all electors surveyed 5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.